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IFX Tatyana
post Aug 4 2009, 12:16 PM
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Dollar Shows Mixed Trading Against Majors.
Tuesday in Asia, the U.S. dollar showed mixed trading against its major counterparts. While the dollar recovered from a new multi-month low against the pound, it remained higher against the euro and the franc. On the other hand, the dollar eased from a 4-day high against the yen.

Data showed yesterday that the U.S. manufacturing sector continued to shrink in July but at a slower pace than in June. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in June, beating economists' expectations. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Meanwhile, a report from the U.S. Commerce Department revealed that construction spending rose 0.3% percent in June following a revised 0.8% slide in May. Economists were expecting a decline of 0.5% for the month.

The dollar strengthened against the pound after hitting a new multi-month low of 1.7005 at 9:35 pm ET Monday. At present, the pound-dollar pair is trading near yesterday's North American session close of 1.6933 with 1.682 seen as the next target level.

During Asian deals on Tuesday, the dollar edged up against the currencies of Europe and Switzerland. Currently, the dollar is worth 1.0626 against the franc and 1.4379 against the euro, compared to yesterday's close of 1.6933 and 1.4419, respectively. If the dollar climbs further, it may likely target 1.074 against the franc and 1.421 against the euro.

The dollar jumped to a 4-day high of 95.48 against the yen at 9:45 pm ET Monday. Thereafter, the dollar-yen pair weakened and it is now worth 95.08, down from yesterday's close of 95.28. The next likely target for the U.S. currency is seen at 94.6.

The monetary base in Japan was up 6.1 percent on year in July to 93.209 trillion yen, following the 6.4 percent annual expansion in June, the Bank of Japan said today. Seasonally adjusted, the monetary base fell 6.9 percent on year to 93.918 trillion yen.

The Swiss July CPI, U.K. July construction PMI and the Euro-zone June PPI are expected in the upcoming European session.

Across the Atlantic, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to release its personal income & outlays report for June at 8:30 am ET. Economists estimate the report to show that personal income declined 1% and the personal spending increased 0.3% in the month.

At 10:00 am ET, the National Association of Realtors is due to release its pending home sales report. Economists estimate a 0.3% increase in the pending home sales index for June.

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IFX Tatyana
post Aug 5 2009, 10:25 AM
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Indonesian Central Bank Lowers Key Rate By 25 Bps.
Wednesday, the Indonesian central bank decided to lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points as expected for the ninth straight month. The Bank Indonesia reduced its benchmark rate to 6.5% from 6.75%. The decision came in line with economists' expectations.

The central bank said rising domestic demand and high commodity prices may cause inflationary pressure next year. The bank added that monetary policy would be directed to be more anticipative of the potential inflation increase.

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IFX Darika
post Aug 6 2009, 01:25 PM
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Fitch Maintains Stable Outlook For Malaysian Banks' Credit Ratings

Thursday, Fitch Ratings maintained the stable outlook on Malaysia's local banks' credit ratings, despite very weak macro economic indicators.

The firm said the probability of capital impairment for Malaysian banks still appeared fairly low, despite the extremely stressed macro economic conditions and the reasonably-stressed assumptions simulated by the agency. Fitch said this in the context of its report titled "Stress Test on Malaysian Banks", where it attempts to simulate a fairly-stressed scenario for Malaysian banks.

The firm also noted that although banks' earnings were likely to be lower in 2009 and 2010 compared with 2008, they appeared adequate to fully absorb the credit costs associated with asset quality deterioration. This means their loss absorption capacity would likely remain adequate and financial strength largely intact, Fitch said.

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IFX Tatyana
post Aug 7 2009, 01:34 PM
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Swiss Jobless Rate Rises In July.
Switzerland's unadjusted jobless rate rose to 3.7% in July from 3.6% in June, the State Secretariat For Economic Affairs said Friday. That was in line with economists' expectations.

There were 145,364 unemployed in the country in July, up 5,111 from June and 53,201 from the same month of the previous year.

Youth unemployment rose 3,229 from June to 25,693 and the number of job seekers grew 5,147 to 204,137. There were 14,370 vacancies in July, down 485 month-on-month.

The seasonally adjusted rate of unemployment also increased in July, to 3.9% from 3.8% recorded in June. That was also in line with economists' prediction.

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IFX Darika
post Aug 10 2009, 03:56 PM
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Pace Of Deterioration In U.K. Job Market Slowing: CIPD/KPMG Survey

The pace of deterioration in the U.K. job market is slowing as private sector demand for staff began to stabilize following a surge of redundancies earlier in the year, results of the latest quarterly CIPD/KPMG labor market outlook survey revealed Monday.

The survey of more than 900 employers in all sectors of the economy found that not only are far fewer employers expecting to make staff redundant but the scale of planned redundancies has also reduced. However, signs of improved employer optimism in the private sector are offset by mounting pessimism in the public sector.

"When it comes to the immediate jobs outlook, the best that can be said is that things are getting worse more slowly," John Philpott, chief economist at the CIPD said. But, he warned that "It is far too soon to rule out another avalanche of private sector redundancies later in the year." According to the survey, employment will keep falling and unemployment is still on course to top 3 million in 2010. Due to a fall in expected redundancies, the private sector unemployment would be less compared to the public sector.

The balance of private firms cutting over those recruiting fell to minus 2 from minus 30 recorded in the spring. By contrast, in the public sector the negative balance has increased from minus 3 to minus 28.

Moreover, the survey found that the pay outlook has worsened, with only 15% of respondents planning to conduct a pay review this quarter, compared to 32% in the previous quarter.

Andrew Smith, chief economist at KPMG said, "This conservative approach indicates that business remains unconvinced that current economic green shoots will lead to sustainable healthy growth in the near term."

Average pay increase expectations have dropped below the rate of inflation to 1.7%. Smith said this will result in a reduction in real earnings and could stifle any consumer led recovery.

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IFX Darika
post Aug 12 2009, 01:24 PM
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Yen Extends Uptrend As Asian Stocks Drop

Wednesday, the yen extended its yesterday's uptrend against other major currencies as Asian stocks tumbled today and prompted investors to further liquidate yen short positions ahead of a policy statement from the U.S. Federal Reserve later in the day.

Asian shares plunged today after losses on Wall Street and as investors locked in profits as they waited to hear what the U.S. Federal Reserve would say about prospects for recovery in the world's largest economy.

Japan's Nikkei 225 was down 1.17%, South Korea's Kospi Composite fell 0.87%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng was 1.93% lower while China's Shanghai Composite slipped 2.93% and Taiwan's main index dropped 0.15%.

The Fed will conclude its two-day policy meeting and release a statement around 2:15 pm ET today, with investors looking to its assessment of the economy and whether it unwinds some of the unconventional easing measures currently in place.

There is mounting speculation that Fed might grow more optimistic about a recovery after a better-than-expected jobs report for July.

The U.S. Labor Department report showed that non-farm payroll employment fell by 247,000 jobs in July following a revised decrease of 443,000 jobs in June. Economists had been expecting employment to fall by 325,000 jobs compared to the drop of 467,000 jobs originally reported for the previous month. The Labor Department also said that the unemployment rate unexpectedly edged down to 9.4% in July from 9.5%, recording a decrease for the first time since April 2008.

The Fed has kept its target rate for overnight loans between banks in a range from zero to 0.25 percent since December. The Federal Open Market Committee will keep rates unchanged today, analysts expect. The central bank has bought $252.761 billion of U.S. Treasuries since it announced a six-month plan in March to purchase $300 million of Treasuries to help keep borrowing low.

Japan's corporate goods price index fell at a record pace in July, adding to concerns that deflation in the world's second largest economy is accelerating.

The Bank of Japan's CGPI data, which tracks prices of domestically produced and used goods traded among companies, plunged 8.5% in July from a year earlier, breaking the record 6.7% drop set in the previous month. Moreover, this was the seventh consecutive month of decline.

Today's results will likely heighten fears of persistent price falls in Japan, as overall economic activity has yet to show signs of a full-fledged recovery.

Still, BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said at a regular press conference on Tuesday that the BOJ doesn't expect Japan to fall into a deflationary spiral now, though "it may take time for falls in prices to end."

On a monthly basis, the domestic CGPI rose 0.4% in July, following the 0.3 percent decline in the previous month.

Meanwhile, a final report from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed that Japan's industrial production growth in June came in at 2.3% on a monthly basis, revised down from 2.4% estimated initially. From the previous year, production plunged 23.5%.

The yen that closed yesterday's trading at 96.01 against the dollar strengthened to a 5-day high of 95.35 during Asian deals on Wednesday. The next upside target level for the yen is seen at 94.7.

The yen plunged to near an 8-week low of 97.80 against the dollar on August 07 as the dollar gained 2% on that day following better-than-expected U.S. jobs data.

But the yen is showing strength this week on encouraging economic reports from Japan. Reports showed this week that Japan's current account surplus and the machinery orders rose more than expected in June. Thus far, the yen has advanced 2.5% against the dollar.

In Asian trading on Wednesday, the yen rose to a 9-day high of 134.91 against the euro. This may be compared to yesterday's closing value of 135.84. On the upside, 133 level is seen as the next target for the Japanese currency.

After hitting a 2-month low of 138.73 against the euro on Friday, the yen has appreciated 3% thus far.</p>

<p>The yen jumped to a 12-day high of 157.29 against the pound in Asian deals on Wednesday. If the yen edges up further, it may likely target the 154.2 level. The pound-yen pair was worth 158.21 at yesterday's close.

Thus far this week, the yen has depreciated 3% against the pound.

During Asian deals on Wednesday, the yen soared to a 12-day high of 88.16 against the Swiss franc. The next target level for the Japanese currency is seen at 87.1. At yesterday's close, the franc-yen pair was quoted at 88.78.

The yen that slumped to near an 8-week low of 90.74 against the franc on Friday has gained 3% since then.

In Asian deals on Wednesday , the yen jumped to a 13-day high of 78.47 against the Aussie and an 8-day high of 63.33 against the NZ dollar. The next upside target level for the yen is seen at 77.0 against the aussie and 63.0 against the kiwi. The aussie-yen pair closed trading at 79.63 and the kiwi-yen pair at 64.09 on Tuesday.

Consumer confidence in Australia rose to a near two-year high in August, as reported today by Westpac Bank and the Melbourne Institute. The group said its index of consumer sentiment was up 2.7 percent compared to July, reaching its highest level since October 2007. The index has increased 27.8 percent since May, making it the sharpest three-month gain since the survey's inception in 1975.

Against the Canadian dollar, the yen surged up to a 2-week high of 86.53 in Asian trading on Wednesday. On the upside, 86.3 is seen as the next target level for the Japanese currency. At yesterday's close, the loonie-yen pair was quoted at 87.15.

The loonie declined as oil steadied below $70 a barrel today after four consecutive days of losses as the market waited for a second set of U.S. inventory data and kept an eye on the outcome of the U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day meeting.

U.S. light crude for September delivery rose 9 cents to $69.54 a barrel in Asian deals, having lost $1.15 on Tuesday on Wall Street losses and after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised lower its global oil demand forecast. London Brent crude fell 6 cents to $72.40.

Looking ahead, the French July CPI and June current account, Italian final July CPI, Euro-zone June industrial production, U.K. labor market reports as well as the Bank of England's quarterly inflation report are expected to influence trading in the upcoming session.

From the U.S., the trade balance report for June is due at 8:30 am ET.

At the same time, the Canadian June trade balance and new housing price index reports are scheduled for release.

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IFX Darika
post Aug 25 2009, 02:59 PM
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Dollar Declines Against European Majors

The US dollar that showed signs of recovery against most of its major rivals immediately following the release of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index for June lost ground shortly. As of 9:10 am ET, the greenback drifted lower to 1.0571 against the Swiss franc, 1.6447 versus the pound and 1.4362 against the euro.

The report showed that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index fell at an annual rate of 15.4 percent in June compared to a revised 17 percent drop in May. Economists had expected prices to fall 16.4 percent compared to the same month a year ago.

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IFX Tatyana
post Aug 26 2009, 03:17 PM
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Dollar Rises To New 6-week High Against Pound, 5-day High Against Franc.
The US dollar that staged a rebound in early European trading against its European major rivals extended its rally thereafter.

The greenback rose to a new 6-week high of 1.624 against the pound and a 5-day high of 1.0655 against the Swiss franc by 7:30 am ET, compared to yesterday's closing values of 1.6354 and 1.0618, respectively. Next target levels for the pound-buck pair and dollar-franc pair are seen at 1.62 and 1.07, respectively.

Hovering near yesterday's 4-day high, the dollar advanced to 1.4263 against the European single unit by 7:40 am ET and the pair is likely to find target around the 1.42 resistance level. The euro-buck pair was worth 1.4299 at Tuesday's close.

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IFX Darika
post Aug 27 2009, 03:18 PM
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UK House Prices Rise For Fourth Month In August - Nationwide

House prices in the UK rose for the fourth consecutive month in August, increasing by 1.6% month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Nationwide building society said Thursday. Economists had forecast house prices to grow only 0.5% after a revised increase of 1.4% in July.

Compared to the previous year, house prices fell 2.7% in August, much slower than the 6.2% decline seen in July. The average price of a typical UK property stood at GBP 160,224, up from GBP 158,871 in July.

Over the first eight months of 2009, the seasonally adjusted index of house prices has risen by 3.2%, though relative to the October 2007 peak it is down by 14.4%, the Nationwide said.

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IFX Tatyana
post Sep 1 2009, 04:12 PM
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European Currency Falls From 4-day High Against Dollar And Yen.
During early European deals on Tuesday, the European currency declined from a 4-day high against the US dollar and the Japanese yen. The euro also edged down versus the Swiss franc, while rose to a 5-day high against the British pound.

In economic news from Europe, a key indicator for Eurozone manufacturing activity increased to a 14-month high in August, rising more than initially estimated, a report by Markit Economics said today. However, the sector continued to contract, though at a slower pace. The final Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index or PMI climbed to 48.2 in August from 46.3 in July. The index also stood above the flash estimate of 47.9. The final reading came in above the flash for the fifth month running.

Eurostat said in a report that Eurozone jobless rate stood at 9.5% in July, up from 9.4% in the previous month. This was the highest jobless rate since May 1999. The jobless rate came in line with economists' expectations. A year ago, the jobless rate was 7.5%.

German retail sales recorded a monthly growth in July after declining in the previous two months, official data showed today. Retail turnover rose by a real 0.7% month-on-month in July after falling 1.3% in June, provisional results from the Federal Statistical Office showed today. Retail sales growth matched expectations. Annually, retail sales slipped 1%, slightly slower than the expected decline of 1.2%.

Against the US dollar, the European currency lost ground after hitting a 4-day high of 1.4379 at 2:00 am ET Tuesday. The euro-dollar pair is currently trading at 1.4327 with 1.415 seen as the next target level.

The single currency that closed Monday's North American session at 0.8803 against the British pound slipped to a 5-day low of 0.8774 at 3:40 am ET Tuesday. Thereafter, the euro-pound pair reversed its direction and is presently trading at a 5-day high of 0.8838. The next upside target level for the European currency is seen around 0.893.

The numbers of loan approvals for house purchase in the UK stood at 50,123 in July, up from 47,891 in June, the Bank of England reported today. Economists were expecting a level of 50,100 for July.

Against the Swiss franc, the 16-nation currency edged down during early deals on Tuesday. At 5:05 am ET, the euro-franc pair declined to 1.5156, compared to 1.5181 hit late New York Monday. If the pair falls further, 1.513 is seen as the next target level.

The Swiss economy contracted less than expected in the second quarter as investment rebounded and the pace of decline in exports eased, official data showed today.

Gross domestic product or GDP fell 0.3% sequentially in the second quarter, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs or SECO said. Economists had forecast GDP to fall 1% in the second quarter after a revised decline of 0.9% in the first quarter. GDP fell for the fourth straight quarter.

Switzerland's Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 50.2 in August from 44.3 in July, a survey from the SVME Association of Purchasing and Materials Management and Credit Suisse showed Tuesday. The indicator also stood above the expected level of 46.9.

The euro that reached a 4-day high of 134.17 against the Japanese yen at 3:15 am ET Tuesday weakened thereafter. Currently, the euro-yen pair is quoted at 133.53, compared to Monday's closing value of 133.49. On the downside, 132.2 is seen as the next target level for the pair.

From the U.S., the ISM manufacturing index for August and the pending home sales and construction spending reports for July have been slated for release in North American session.

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IFX Darika
post Sep 2 2009, 04:06 PM
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Doing Business In China Getting Harder, European Business Lobby Says

European businesses feel doing business in China is getting harder, a report from the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China showed Wednesday.

In its business position paper 2009/2010, the business lobby said European businesses have observed a slowdown after China made strict regulations over the past twelve months, with some sectors reporting that the situation has actually gotten worse as industrial-policy interventions and foreign investment restrictions have increased.

The European Chamber urged China to open up its markets and to make fundamental reforms to maintain the attractiveness of China as an investment destination for European businesses. Such moves will also help China to build a sustainable economic recovery.

"European businesses believe that the current economic crisis provides a prime opportunity for China to restructure the economy and build a transparent and fair business environment for all companies, both domestic and foreign."

The European Chamber believes that China can play a proactive role in easing trade tensions by arresting the regression in the reform process observed in many industries and adopting measures to build a level playing field for all businesses in China.

"Such moves would also serve to boost investment and domestic consumption, and in turn enable the Chinese economy to achieve its latent potential."

"Over the past year, the European Chamber has noted a gradual slowdown - and in some cases a partial reversal - in the economic opening up process," said Joerg Wuttke President of the European Chamber.

However, China's experience in the last three decades has clearly proved that it is precisely in periods of crisis that increased opening and reform has bred the greatest success.

"We are convinced that this is an ideal moment for China to adopt a new and bolder cycle of reforms, a move that would ensure that China maximizes its growth potential over the next five to ten years," Wuttke said.

The European Chamber will be presenting its paper to government and regulatory agencies in China, to the European Commission and EU member state governments, and to a wide range of business organizations and companies in China and Europe.

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IFX Tatyana
post Sep 3 2009, 03:46 PM
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Swedish Krona Soars To 10-day High Against Dollar.
The Swedish krona gained ground against its US counterpart in early trading on Thursday following the Central Banks of both the Sweden and Europe decided to leave their key interest rates unchanged, as expected.

The Executive Board of the Riksbank maintained the repo rate at a record low of 0.25% and the rate is expected to remain at this low level until autumn 2010. The central bank said the interest rate needs to be low over a long period of time to support a stable recovery and to attain the 2% inflation target.

The central bank is of the view that supplementary measures are required to ensure the intended effect of monetary policy. So, the Executive Board decided to offer further loans of SEK 100 billion to the banks at a fixed interest rate and with a maturity of around one year. This could help in lowering interest rates on loans given to companies and households, the Riksbank added.

The central bank further raised the economic outlook and forecasts recovery in the next year. Now, the economy is estimated to shrink 4.9% this year, better than the 5.4% fall estimated previously. The 2010 GDP growth is seen at 1.9% compared to the 1.4% expansion estimated previously.

The Swedish krona that slumped to a 6-day low of 1.4467 against the greenback on Wednesday has gained around 0.65 percent to touch an 11-day high of 1.4439 by 7:45 am ET. The pair moved sideways thereafter and is currently quoted at 1.4383.

The Swedish krona ended its Wednesday's trading higher at 1.4424 against the buck. If the domestic currency gains further, resistance is likely to be seen around the 1.432 level.

Also, the European Central Bank held its key interest rate at a record low level of 1%. The decision was in line with economists' expectations.

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dorin
post Sep 3 2009, 05:30 PM
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you moved? i hardly found you blink.gif

ifx tatyana, you write very useful article! i trade USDCZK, your news gives me weighty help. happy.gif
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IFX Darika
post Sep 4 2009, 04:25 PM
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Crude Oil Slips Slightly, Remains Near $68

Crude oil prices saw little change for a second straight session on Thursday, remaining near the $68 per barrel mark. Traders looked ahead to the jobs report on Friday

Light sweet crude for October fell to $67.96, down nine cents on the session. Prices touched as high as $69.40 after earlier hitting as low as $67.66.

The Labor Department's non-farm payroll report is expected at 8:30 a.m. ET tomorrow. Jobs are expected to drop by 225,000 jobs in August, compared to a drop of 247,000 in July. The unemployment rate is expected to inch up to 9.5%, compared to 9.4% a month earlier.

In economic news, the Labor Department reported jobless claims edged down to 570,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 574,000. Economists had been expecting jobless claims to slip to 564,000 from the 570,000 originally reported for the previous week. The Labor Department's monthly employment situation report is due tomorrow.

Later, the Institute for Supply Management said its index of activity in the service sector rose to 48.4 in August from 46.4 in July, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction in the sector. Economists had been expecting a slightly lower reading of 48.0.

On Wednesday, the Energy Department revealed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 400,000 barrels in the week ended August 28 to reach 43.4 million barrels. Experts were looking for a drop of about 1.9 million barrels. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 3.0 million barrels last week.

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Nick'Otin
post Sep 7 2009, 04:22 PM
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Attached File  eurusd1.gif ( 32.76K ) Number of downloads: 3

Hello.To my mind it's the best moment to sell GBPUSD right now.
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IFX Darika
post Sep 7 2009, 05:00 PM
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US Dollar And Japanese Yen Falls As Stocks Rise

During early deals on Monday, the US dollar and the Japanese yen edged down against their major counterparts as a rise in Asian and European stock prices reduced demand for currencies perceived as safe havens.

The dollar and the yen are viewed as safe-haven currencies and both currencies gain, when investors turn risk averse and fall when risk appetite improves.

The dollar slipped to a 6-day low against the European currency, 13-day low versus the British pound, 4-day low against the Swiss franc, while edged higher to a 6-day high against the Japanese yen.

Against the European currency, the US dollar edged down during early deals on Monday. At 3:05 am ET, the dollar touched a 6-day low of 1.4363 against the euro, compared to 1.4312 hit late New York Friday. The next downside target level for the US currency is seen around 1.445.

The Sentix investor confidence indicator for the Eurozone rose to minus 14.61 in September from minus 17 in August. Economists had forecast a reading of minus 13.7. Among the sub-indicators, the current situation index moved to minus 32.75 from minus 39, while the expectations index fell to 5.50 in September from 8 in August.

The US currency that closed Friday's North American session at 1.6399 against the British pound slipped to a 13-day low of 1.6445 at 3:35 am ET Monday. The pound-dollar pair is currently trading at 1.6419 with 1.660 seen as the next target level.

Against the Swiss franc, the greenback traded down during Monday's early deals. At 3:05 am ET, the dollar-franc pair declined to a 4-day low of 1.0558, compared to Friday's closing value of 1.0603. If the pair falls further, 1.054 is seen as the next target level for the pair.

The US dollar gained ground after hitting a low of 92.95 against the Japanese yen during today's early Asian deals. At 4:15 am ET, the dollar-yen pair climbed to a 6-day high of 93.31. On the upside, 93.6 is seen as the next target level for the pair. The pair closed Friday's New York deals at 93.01.

The Japanese yen showed weakness against its major counterparts during today's early deals.

The Japanese currency edged down to a 10-day low of 153.29 against the British pound and a 6-day low of 133.89 versus the European currency during today's early deals. If the Japanese yen falls further, 154.1 against the pound and 134.5 versus the euro are seen as the next target levels. The yen closed Friday's deals at 152.53 against the pound and 133.11 against the euro.

Against the Swiss franc, the Japanese unit showed weakness during today's deals. At 4:15 am ET, the yen slipped to a 6-day low of 88.32 against the franc, compared to Friday's closing value of 87.76. The next downside target level for the Japanese yen is seen around 88.6.

The U.S. financial markets are closed today in observance of the Labor Day holiday.

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IFX Darika
post Sep 8 2009, 03:24 PM
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Trichet: Global Economy Probably Out Of Freefall

The global economy is probably out of freefall and stabilizing faster than previously expected, European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said Monday.

"We are probably in large part of the global economy out of the period of free-fall," he said at the end of a discussion held at the Bank for International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland.

Trichet, who chairs the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, said the outlook for the global economy had brightened and the recovery would be faster than anticipated.

"We have to remain prudent and cautious and it's not excluded we will have a bumpy road. Uncertainties are big," Trichet said. He stated that the current situation still requires "caution, prudence and alertness."

Further, Trichet pointed out that protectionism and imbalances in the world economy are the two main risks to a recovery.

"Authorities and the private sector will not be forgiven if we again have to cope with a situation as dramatic as the one we have had to cope with in September last year," Trichet warned.

He also noted that reforms are necessary to strengthen the financial system to avoid further risks.

Late on Sunday, leading central bank governors and banking regulators agreed on a new set of measures to strengthen supervision of the global banking system. With the new rules in force, banks would be required to earmark major part of their profits as reserve to use in tough times.

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IFX Darika
post Sep 10 2009, 04:52 PM
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European Economics Preview: BoE Expected To Retain Key Rate

Thursday, the Bank of England is set to announce its interest rate decision. The central bank is widely expected to leave the interest rate untouched at a record low of 0.5% and to continue its GBP 175 billion asset purchase programme.

At 2.45am ET, the French statistical office INSEE is scheduled to issue industrial production data. Month-on-month, industrial production is forecast to rise 0.4% in July and manufacturing output growth is seen at 0.5%.

Thereafter, the Hungarian CPI and Turkish GDP reports are due. Economists forecast Hungarian annual inflation to rise to 5.8% in August from 5.1% in July. The Turkish economy is forecast to shrink 8% annually in the second quarter.

Half an hour later, consumer prices details are due from Denmark and Sweden. Sweden consumer prices are forecast to drop 1% annually in August compared to a 0.9% fall in July. Meanwhile, Danish annual inflation is expected to rise to 1.1% in August from 1% in July.

At 4.00am ET, the European Central Bank is set to issue monthly bulletin. In the meantime, Norwegian CPI and PPI reports are also due.

At 5.00am ET, a final report for the second quarter GDP is due from the Italian statistical office.

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IFX Tatyana
post Sep 11 2009, 12:40 PM
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British Pound Climbs To 1-month High Against US Dollar
During early European deals on Friday, the British pound extended its Asian session's 1-month high against the US dollar on the back of strong equities.

Britain's top share index gained 0.5 percent in early deals today, moving back above the 5,000 level, led by strength in heavyweight oils, miners and banks, supported by gains on Wall Street and in Asia.

By 6:07 am ET, the FTSE 100 index .FTSE was 34.26 points higher at 5,022.12, having closed 16.62 points, or 0.3 percent lower on Thursday at 4,987.68.

The benchmark index closed above 5,000 for the first time since late September 2008 on Wednesday.

The pound also climbed to a 4-day high against the European currency, while declined to a 3-day low versus the Japanese yen.

The pound also rose after a report showed today that producer price index in the United Kingdom has improved in August from July.

The Office for National Statistics said UK output prices were down 0.4% in August, smaller than July's 1.3% annual decline and 0.5% fall expected by economists. Month-on-month, output prices rose 0.2% in August, the same as in July. The expected growth rate was 0.3%.

Core output prices that excludes food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum climbed 0.2% on a monthly basis and 0.7% annually in August.

Against the US dollar, the British pound edged higher during early deals on Friday. At 2:05 am ET, the pound-dollar pair reached a 1-month high of 1.6744, compared to 1.6653 hit late New York Thursday. The next upside target level for the pair is seen around 1.72.

The dollar is under selling pressure today as the better-than-expected US employment data released yesterday helped boost market participants sentiment about US economic prospects, prompting them to invest in other higher-yielding currencies at the expense of the dollar.

A slew of Chinese economic data released in the morning, including better-than-expected industrial production, added to improved investor sentiment.

U.K.'s sterling that closed Thursday's North American session at 0.8760 against the European currency climbed to a 4-day high of 0.8726 at 5:00 am ET Friday. If the pound gains further, 0.867 is seen as the next target level.

Italy's industrial production rose 1% month-on-month in July, statistical office Istat said today. Economists had expected an increase of 0.4%. In June, industrial output fell 0.6%, revised up from a 1.2% decline reported originally. Against the Swiss franc, the British currency showed strength during Friday's early deals. At 5:00 am ET, the pound-franc pair hit a high of 1.7366, compared to Thursday's closing value of 1.7298. On the upside, 1.741 is seen as the next target level for the pound.

The sterling that closed Thursday's New York deals at 152.79 against the Japanese yen declined to a 3-day low of 151.47 at 3:40 am ET Friday. The pound-yen pair is currently trading at 151.91 with 149.9 is seen as the next target level.

Japan's economy grew in the April-to-June quarter, but not by as much as originally reported, a government report showed today.

Japan's gross domestic product increased 0.6 percent from the preceding quarter or 2.3 percent in annualized terms. The growth reported by the Cabinet office was below the preliminary estimate of 0.9 percent on-quarter growth and 3.7 percent annualized growth.

Capital spending was downwardly revised to 4.8 percent on quarter from the initial report of a 4.3 percent decline.

Elsewhere, a monthly survey from the Cabinet Office showed that Japanese consumer confidence rose to 40.4 in August from 39.7 in July. The index also stood above the expected reading of 40.2.

From the U.S., the Department of Commerce will release its import and export price reports for August at 8:30 am ET.

At 10:00 am ET, the Commerce Department is due to release its wholesale inventories report. Economists expect wholesale inventories at the end of July to show a 0.1% decline.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September is due to be released at the same time. The report is expected to show that the consumer sentiment index rose to 67.5 in the month.

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Regards, news editor Tatyana Tokarchuk


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IFX Darika
post Sep 14 2009, 04:06 PM
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Greenback Pares Recent Losses Monday Morning

The dollar was stable Monday morning in New York following last week's brutal losses, as traders geared up for a busy week on the economic front.

Increased risk aversion has driven the dollar to its lowest level of the year versus a basket of major currencies, but renewed concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery could give the buck a boost in the coming days.

Monday's economic calendar is fairly light, with President Obama giving a speech on the economy and financial regulation in New York.

However, later in the week, traders will be flooded with a spate of economic data, which could help them gain more clarity on the economy's course.

The Commerce Department's retail sales report for August, the results of the New York Federal Reserve's and Philadelphia Federal Reserve's manufacturing surveys for September and the Federal Reserve's industrial production report for August may be closely watched.

The dollar rose sharply versus the sterling, jumping almost 2 cents to 1.6550 from a monthly low set late last week.

The buck also firmed up versus the euro, holding near 1.4550. Last week, the dollar hit a 2009 low of 1.4634 as stocks continued to improve.

The European Commission kept its economic outlook unchanged from May's spring forecast. Gross domestic product or GDP is expected to fall 4% this year in both the Eurozone and in the EU.

The dollar pared some of its recent losses versus the yen, improving to 90.90 from a February low of 90.18. With the advance, the dollar stayed away from a 13-year low of 87.08 set back in January.

Meanwhile, the buck hit a weekly high of C$1.0900 versus the loonie. Early in August, the dollar hit a yearly low of C$1.0630, but has since managed to stabilize.

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