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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 4 2019, 05:42 AM
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Australia Retail Sales Data On Tap For Monday



Australia will on Monday release September figures for retail sales, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent on month, unchanged from the August ready. For the third quarter of 2019, sales are called higher by 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent in Q2.

Australia also will see October data for the job ads monitor from ANZ and the inflation forecast from TD Securities. In September, job ads were up 0.3 percent on month, while inflation was predicted to be higher by 0.1 percent on month and 1.5 percent on year.

Malaysia will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth 70.43 billion ringgit and exports were at 81.36 billion ringgit for a trade surplus of 10.92 billion ringgit.

Thailand will release October figure for consumer and producer prices. In September, overall inflation was up 0.1 percent on month and 0.3 percent on year, while core CPI rose 0.1 percent on month and 0.4 percent on year. Producer prices were flat on month and down 1.9 percent on year.

Finally, the markets in Japan are closed on Monday for Culture Day and will re-open on Tuesday.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 5 2019, 04:52 AM
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Dollar resists pressure, EUR/USD tends to rise



The current week has begun quite calmly for the main world currency. The ISM report on the US manufacturing sector only caused a slight drawback. However, experts are confident in the stability of the US currency and the strengthening of its position. The ISM report, demonstrating the state of the manufacturing sector of the US economy, presented a real picture of what was happening, which did not please the experts too much. Although the ISM index was higher than the September 2019 indicator, it did not reach the expectations of analysts, remaining close to a ten-year low. According to statistics, US production, like imports, fell to 2009 lows. According to experts, these indicators indicate a high probability of further easing of the Federal Reserve policy. Many experts expected a stronger market reaction to the publication of a key US employment report. According to data presented last Friday, job growth slowed down a bit, but remained at an acceptable level (128 thousand instead of the forecasted 85–90 thousand), while the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6%. Analysts also recorded an increase in average hourly wages of 0.2% instead of the expected 0.3%. Current data has confirmed a slowdown in the US economy, which is under severe pressure from prolonged trade wars. An additional confirmation of this fact was the fall in business activity in the manufacturing sector (ISM index) below the critical level of 50. The US dollar did not avoid the negative impact. In the chain of "American economy - US currency", it is a key link that accounts for the main blows. The greenback is actively opposing them, but remains under pressure, which intensifies with optimism in the markets. Note that trade disputes have always spurred the growth of the greenback, so the weakening of trade tension will contribute to the demand for other assets to the detriment of the US dollar. The U.S. administration is currently seeking to soften rhetoric, declaring optimism regarding negotiations between America and China. The White House is talking about a possible cancellation of tariffs for European cars. In such a situation, the EUR/USD pair may begin to sag. On the morning of Monday, November 4, it already showed a similar trend, trading near 1.1151–1.1152 marks.



The downward trend caused concern among market participants, as a day earlier the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1169–1.1170, the highs of August 2019.



According to analysts, the pair is one step away from the key level of 1.1200. Overcoming this milestone, as in the case of the dollar index (DXY), is assessed by the market as a prerequisite for further growth. If this level is overcome, the EUR/USD pair will occupy high positions and maintain them until the end of 2019, experts said. The implementation of such a scenario will raise the pair almost to an unattainable height - up to 1.1400 and above. On Monday, before starting to rise, the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1157–1.1158. Now the pair has slightly increased to 1,1159–1,1160.



Experts rate high chances that the pair will continue the rally. To implement this scenario, a relatively calm external background is needed, that is, the absence of a hard Brexit, an escalation of the conflict between the US and the EU, as well as the stabilization of Washington-Beijing relations. In this case, the EUR/USD pair, having overcome the key barrier of 1,1200, may begin to move to 1.1260–1.1270. For this, the "bulls" will need to break through the resistance at the levels of 1.1175–1.1190. As for the current sentiment, analysts are confident that market players will seek to close long positions in the dollar. Long-term observations show that the US currency can withstand even the most unfavorable factors. Apart from market volatility and an unstable external background, these include mixed economic data on the US economy and the Fed's attempts to weaken the national currency. Nevertheless, the greenback can cope with the situation. Its strength allows it not to sag under the pressure of negative circumstances, experts conclude.



At the time, the EUR / USD pair reached the level of 1.1165–1.1166, trying to exceed what was achieved.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 6 2019, 05:07 AM
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Bank Of Japan Minutes On Tap For Wednesday



The Bank of Japan will on Wednesday release the minutes from its September 19 monetary policy meeting, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

At the meeting, the Policy Board of the BoJ voted 7-2 to maintain interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the bank. The bank said it will purchase government bonds so that the yield of 10-year JGBs will remain at around zero percent.

Japan also will see final October numbers for the services and composite PMIs from Jibun Bank; the previous scores were 50.3 and 49.8, respectively.

The central bank in Thailand will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates; the bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 1.50 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 7 2019, 03:32 AM
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Australia Has A$7.180 Billion Trade Surplus In September



Australia had a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$7.180 billion in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That handily exceeded forecasts for a surplus of A$5.050 billion following the upwardly revised A$6.617 billion surplus in the previous month (originally A$5.926 billion).

Exports were up A$1.452 billion or 3.0 percent on month to A$43.215 billion, while imports gained A$889 million or 3.0 percent on month to A$36.034 billion.

Net exports of goods under merchanting remained roughly steady at A$15 million.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 8 2019, 02:41 AM
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Japan Household Spending Jumps 9.5% On Year In September



The average of household spending in Japan was up 9.5 percent on year in real terms in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - coming in at 300,609 yen.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 7.0 percent following the 1.0 percent gain in August.

The average of monthly income per household stood at 457,427 yen, down an annual 0.4 percent.

Individually, spending was up for food, housing, fuel, furniture, clothing, medical care, transportation and recreation.

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IFX Gertrude
post Today, 05:17 AM
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Japan Core Machinery Orders Fall Unexpectedly



Japan core machinery orders declined unexpectedly in September, data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday.

Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of private capital investment, declined 2.9 percent month-on-month, following a 2.4 percent drop in August.

This was the third consecutive fall in orders. Orders were forecast to expand 0.9 percent.

By sector, orders in manufacturing declined 5.2 percent, while that in non-manufacturing grew 2.6 percent.

In the fourth quarter, core orders are forecast to grow 3.5 percent.

The continued fall in machinery orders suggests that the recent strength in capital goods shipments won't last, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The economist forecasts a 0.7 percent sequential drop in business investment in the fourth quarter. Investment growth is set to slow to 1.0 percent in 2020 from 1.8 percent this year.

On a yearly basis, core orders rose 5.1 percent, in contrast to August's 14.5 percent decrease and slower than the 8.1 percent increase in August.

The third quarter GDP data is due on November 14. The economy is forecast to grow 0.9 percent after rising 1.3 percent in the second quarter.

Elsewhere, data from Bank of Japan showed that bank lending grew at a steady pace of 2 percent in October.

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