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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 30 2018, 06:23 AM
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Japan's Jobless Rate Declines In September



Japan's unemployment rate declined in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications reported Tuesday.

The jobless rate fell to 2.3 percent from 2.4 percent in August. This was the lowest rate since early 1990s. The rate was expected to remain unchanged at 2.4 percent.

The jobs-to-applicant ratio rose slightly to 1.64 from 1.63 a month ago.

The unemployment rate is the lowest it has been in a generation and it will fall further over the coming year, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The upshot is that wage growth probably won't reach the 2.5 percent annual rate required to meet the BoJ's 2 percent inflation target, the economist added.

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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 31 2018, 03:22 AM
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China Manufacturing PMI Slips To 50.2 In October



The manufacturing sector in China continued to expand in October, albeit at a slower pace, the latest survey from the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 50.2.

That missed expectations for 50.6 and was down from 50.8 in September - although it remains above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The bureau also said its non-manufacturing index came in with a score of 53.9 - missing forecasts for 54.6 and down from 54.9 in the previous month.

The composite index had a score of 53.1, down from 54.1 a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 5 2018, 05:31 AM
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Japan Services Sector Accelerates In October - Nikkei



The services sector in Japan continued to expand in October, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from Nikkei revealed on Monday with a PMI score of 52.4.

That's up from 50.2 in September, and it moves back above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

The October reading also touched a six-month index high.

Individually, there was a stronger upturn in business activity, while new business growth quickened to a five-year high.

Selling charge inflation eased despite a strong rise in costs.

The survey also said its composite index climbed to 52.5 from 50.7 a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 6 2018, 06:51 AM
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RBA Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged At Historic Low



The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday decided to put its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low for the 26th consecutive meeting.

The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, governed by Philip Lowe, voted to maintain the cash rate at 1.50 percent. The interest rate has been at the current level since August 2016.

"Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the bank said in a statement.

Policymakers observed that the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy.

Although policymakers expect further progress in the reduction of unemployment and inflation returning to target, this progress is likely to be gradual, the bank noted.

The Australian economy was performing well with the GDP growing by 3.4 percent and the unemployment rate declining to five percent over the past year, it said.

The bank revised up its economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019. Economic growth is expected to be around 3.5 percent over these two years, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources.

The upward revision to the RBA's growth and inflation forecasts suggest that the Bank is moving closer to tightening policy, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The central bank may be seeking clearer evidence that the tighter labour market is generating stronger wage growth before hiking interest rates.

The economist suggested the full impact of tighter lending standards on house prices and consumption have yet to be felt.

Thieliant believed that the downturn in the housing market would lead to a renewed slowdown in activity next year and hence the first rate hike is likely to come by the end of 2020.

Regarding property market, the bank said conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued to ease and nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low.

The outlook for household consumption continued to be a source of uncertainty for the economy, the bank cautioned. Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined.

Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers remained robust, but demand by investors has slowed noticeably amid changing dynamics of the housing market, it added.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 7 2018, 07:33 AM
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European Economics Preview: German Factory Production, Eurozone Retail Sales Due



Wednesday is a relatively busy day in Europe with the release of German factory production data and Eurozone retail sales figures scheduled.

Germany's Destatis is set to release the industrial production figures for September at 2 am ET. Production is expected to fall 0.1 percent monthly after a 0.3 percent slump in August. On a year-on-year basis, output is forecast to grow 0.2 percent following a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month.

Figures released on Tuesday showed that factory orders unexpectedly rose for a second straight month in September, led by domestic demand, suggesting improvement in the economic momentum ahead.

At 5 am ET, Eurostat is set to publish the euro area retail sales data for September. Sales are expected to edge up 0.1 percent from the previous month, when they fell 0.2 percent. Compared to a year ago, retail sales are expected to grow 0.8 percent after a 1.8 percent gain in the previous month.

A look at other news scheduled for the day.

Inflation data for October is due from Estonia at 1 am ET. Headline CPI inflation accelerated for a second straight month to 3.7 percent in September and prices were unchanged from the previous month.

At 2 am ET, Statistics Norway is set to publish the industrial production data for September. In August, industrial production grew 1.8 percent from the previous month and 2.3 percent from a year ago.

Manufacturing output is forecast to grow 0.4 percent from the previous month after a 0.1 percent drop in August. Factory output grew 5.1 percent year-on-year in August.

France's Customs Office is expected to release the trade data for September at 2.45 am ET. The trade deficit was EUR 5.6 billion in August.

Swiss foreign currency reserves data for October is due at 3 am ET.

Elsewhere, the Hungarian Central Statistical Office is set to release the first estimate for September retail sales. Sales grew 6.8 percent year-on-year in August.

Half an hour later, IHS Markit is scheduled to release the latest Halifax house price index for October. Economists have forecast a monthly increase of 0.8 percent and an annual gain of 1.3 percent in the UK house prices. In September, house prices were 1.4 percent lower than in the pervious month and 2.5 percent higher from a year ago.

IHS Markit is also set to release the German Construction PMI for October at 3.30 am ET. In September, the reading was 50.2. A score above 50 suggests growth.

Further, Sweden's National Debt Office is set to release the budget balance for October at 3.30 am ET.

At 3.55 am ET, Iceland's central bank is scheduled to announce its latest policy decision. The interest rate is currently at 4.25 percent.

Italy's statistical office ISTAT is set to release retail sales data for September. Sales are expected to grow 2.1 percent year-on-year and 0.7 percent from the previous month. In August, retail sales grew 2.1 percent from a year ago and fell 0.2 percent from July.

In other news, the National Bank of Poland is scheduled to announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected leave the key interest rate unchanged at 1.50 percent.

Also due on Wednesday are Finland's trade data and Denmark's industrial production data for September at 2 am ET, Slovakia's retail sales, trade and industrial production data for September and Austria's wholesale prices for October at 3 am ET, Luxembourg's CPI figures for October at 5 am ET, and Portugal's Q3 unemployment rate and Ireland's September industrial production data at 6 am ET.

Late Wednesday, the UK RICS house price balance for October is due at 07.01 pm ET.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 8 2018, 07:13 AM
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China's Exports, Imports Rise More Than Forecast



China's exports and imports increased more-than-expected in October, official data showed Thursday.

Exports grew 15.6 percent annually, the General Administration of Customs reported. Economists had forecast an increase of 11.7 percent.

At the same time, imports surged 21.4 percent compared to the forecast of 14.7 percent.

As a result, the trade surplus came in at $34 billion in October versus the expected level of $35.1 billion.

In yuan terms, imports advanced 26.3 percent and exports climbed 20.1 percent from last year. The trade surplus totaled CNY 233.6 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 9 2018, 05:40 AM
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China CPI Steady At 2.5% On Year In October



Consumer prices in China were up 2.5 percent on year in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday.

That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the September reading.

The bureau also said that producer prices climbed an annual 3.3 percent - matching forecasts and slowing from 3.6 percent in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 12 2018, 08:46 AM
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Singapore Retail Sales Rebound In September



Singapore's retail sales grew in September after declining in the previous two months, preliminary data from Statistics Singapore showed on Monday.

Retail sales at current prices rose 1.9 percent year-on-year following a 0.4 percent decline in August and a 2.6 percent slump in July. In June, sales grew 1.9 percent.

Excluding automobiles, retail sales increased 1.8 percent year-on-year after a 2.4 percent increase in August.

Automobile sales grew 2.5 percent year-on-year following declines in the previous two months.

Sales at petrol service stations registered the biggest gain of 11.4 percent in September followed by watches and jewelry, sales of which increased 7.4 percent.

Food store sales grew 2.5 percent. In contrast, sales of computer and telecommunication equipment continued to fall, down 5.8 percent. Sales of optical goods and books dropped 3.1 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, retail sales decreased a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent at current prices in September after a 2.4 percent increase in August.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 13 2018, 07:15 AM
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European Economics Preview: German ZEW, UK Labor Market Data Due



Europe is set for a busy day on the economics front with the ZEW investor confidence survey results from Germany and the labor market data from the UK due.

The UK labor market data is due at 4.30 am ET on Tuesday. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at its 43-year low of 4 percent in the three months to September and employment is forecast to grow 25,000.

Average earnings including bonus is expected to grow 3 percent year-on-year after a 2.7 percent gain in the previous period. Excluding bonus, pay is forecast to rise 3.1 percent, the same as in August. The rate of growth was the fastest since late 2008.

The Mannheim-based ZEW is set release its latest investor confidence indicator for November at 5 am ET. The German investor confidence measure is expected to weaken to -26 from -24.7 in October. The current situation index is forecast to drop to 65 from 70.1.

In other data, the Central Bureau of Statistics is set to publish the Dutch retail sales figures for September at 00.30 am ET. Destatis is set to release the final figures for German inflation for October at 2 am ET.

European Central Bank's Chief Economist Peter Praet is set to speak in London at 3 am ET. Producer and Import prices for October are due from Switzerland's Federal Statistical Office at 3.15 am ET. The producer and import price index is forecast to rise 2.2 percent year-on-year following 2.6 percent increase in September. Month-on-month, the index is expected to edge up 0.1 percent following a 0.2 percent fall. ECB's Sabine Lautenschlager, who is the Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, is set to speak in Frankfurt at 3.45 am ET. Final consumer price inflation data for October is due from Portugal at 6 am ET. Headline inflation was estimated at 1 percent on October 31. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos is set to speak in Frankfurt at 2 pm ET. Also due on Tuesday are unemployment data from Iceland and Poland current account balance, both at 7 am ET.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 14 2018, 07:37 AM
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China Industrial Production Climb 5.9% In October



Industrial production in China was up 5.9 percent on year in October, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Wednesday.

That exceeded expectation for 5.8 percent, which would have been unchanged from the September reading.

The bureau also said that retail sales climbed 8.6 percent on year - missing forecasts for a gain of 9.2 percent, which again would have been unchanged from the previous month.

Fixed asset investment advanced an annual 5.7 percent, surpassing forecasts for 5.5 percent and up from 5.4 percent a month prior.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 15 2018, 05:27 AM
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Australia Jobless Rate Steady At 5.0% In October



The unemployment rate in Australia came in at a seasonally adjusted 5.0 percent in October, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That was unchanged from the September reading, although it was beneath expectations for 5.1 percent.

The Australian economy added 32,800 jobs last month - beating forecasts for 20,000 following the addition of 7,800 jobs in the previous month.

The participation rate was 65.6 percent - exceeding expectations for 65.5 percent, which would have been unchanged.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 16 2018, 08:45 AM
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Germany's Wholesale Price Inflation Accelerates In October



Germany's wholesale prices climbed at a faster pace in October, data from Destatis revealed Friday.

Wholesale price inflation improved to 4 percent from 3.5 percent in the previous month.

The wholesale price growth in October was largely influenced by a 24.1 percent increase in solid fuels and petroleum products prices. Chemical product prices rose by 6.5 percent. Meanwhile, prices for waste and residues dropped 8.4 percent and live animals fell 9.7 percent.

Month-on-month, wholesale prices rose 0.3 percent after a 0.4 percent increase in September.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 19 2018, 08:49 AM
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Turkey Retail Sales Fall For First Time In 19 Months



Turkey's retail sales volume declined for the first time in over one-and-a-half years in September, preliminary data from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday.

The retail sales volume dropped a calendar adjusted 3.4 percent year-on-year following a 1.5 percent increase in August. The latest decline was the first since February 2017, when sales decreased 1 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, retail sales fell a seasonally-and-calendar adjusted 4.6 percent in September after a 0.2 percent gain in August. The latest drop was the first since February this year, when sales decreased 1 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 20 2018, 05:12 AM
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RBA Minutes: Domestic Economy Improved More Than Expected



Members of the Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board said that the country's economy has continued to pick up steam, and at a slightly faster rate than expected, minutes from the central bank's November 6 meeting revealed on Tuesday.

At the meeting, the RBA kept its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low of 1.50 percent for the 26th consecutive meeting. The interest rate has been at the current level since August 2016.

"Members judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the minutes said.

The appreciating U.S. dollar and its effect on the Australian currency has helped to boost domestic growth, the minutes said. They added that the inflation rate remained low and stable beneath the midpoint of the target range, as expected.

They further added that while a change to the rate is not imminent, it's likely to be an increase - not a decrease, owing to the improvements in the economy.

"There was no strong case for a near-term adjustment in monetary policy. Rather, members assessed that it would be appropriate to hold the cash rate steady and for the Bank to be a source of stability and confidence while this progress unfolds," the minutes said.

Although policymakers expect further progress in the reduction of unemployment and inflation returning to target, this progress is likely to be gradual, the bank noted.

The Australian economy was performing well with the GDP growing by 3.4 percent and the unemployment rate declining to five percent over the past year, the RBA said.

The bank revised up its economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019. Economic growth is expected to be around 3.5 percent over these two years, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources.

"Taking account of the available information on current economic and financial conditions, as well as the latest forecasts, members assessed that the current stance of monetary policy would continue to support economic growth and allow for further gradual progress to be made in reducing the unemployment rate and returning inflation towards the midpoint of the target," the minutes said.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 21 2018, 07:57 AM
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NZ Dollar Advances Against Majors



The New Zealand dollar climbed against its major counterparts in late Asian deals on Wednesday.

The kiwi advanced to 0.6813 against the greenback, from an early weekly low of 0.6782.

The kiwi climbed to 76.92 against the yen and 1.6700 against the euro, off its previous 8-day low of 76.44 and a 2-day low of 1.6760, respectively.

The kiwi rose back to 1.0614 against the aussie, after falling to 1.0649 at 9:15 pm ET.

If the kiwi rises further, it may find resistance around 0.69 against the greenback, 78.00 against the yen, 1.65 against the euro and 1.05 against the aussie.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 27 2018, 03:22 AM
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The Ifo business climate index in Germany fell to 102 in November



According to the Ifo Institute, the mood in German companies continued to decline in November, worsening their business forecasts for the next six months. The business climate index in November, calculated by the institute, fell from the October mark of 102.9 to 102.0. Experts predicted that the figure will be 102.3.

Thus, we can conclude that the German economy is showing signs of cooling, notes Ifo's president, Clemens Fuest. Manufacturing companies are unhappy with the current situation in the country and fear that the prospects for the success of their business are in doubt. However, according to Ifo, the number of companies willing to raise prices has increased.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 28 2018, 05:25 AM
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Brexit could cut UK GDP by 5.5% by 2030



According to a study by the London School of Economics and King's College, UK GDP could be reduced by 5.5% by 2030 compared to what the United Kingdom could be in the European Union. Moreover, in the absence of a transaction, the growth of the British economy can be from 3.5% to 8.7%.

By making such assumptions, the authors of the study paid attention to the likelihood of the emergence of trade barriers after Britain's withdrawal from the EU and the decline in immigration flow. At the same time, the study was carried out taking into account the preservation of Great Britain in the customs union, but exclusion from the single market.

Experts also believe that Brexit will entail an increase in regulatory barriers to trade not only in goods but also in services. Also, the deal will mean a restriction of freedom of movement between countries, which will lead to a reduction in both skilled and unskilled workers from other countries.

Together, all these factors will lead to the fact that the growth rate of the British economy will be lower than 1.9-5.5% , if the country remained in the EU.

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IFX Gertrude
post Dec 3 2018, 05:06 AM
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Australia Company Operating Profits Rise 1.9% In Q3



Company operating profits in Australia were up a seasonally adjusted 1.9 percent on quarter in the third quarter of 2018, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Monday.

That missed expectations for an increase of 2.8 percent and was down from 2.0 percent in the three months prior.

Inventories were flat on quarter, missing forecasts for an increase of 0.4 percent and down from 0.6 percent in the second quarter.

On a yearly basis, company profits were up 13.5 percent and inventories gained 1.6 percent. Wages and salaries were up 0.9 percent on quarter and 4.3 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
post Dec 4 2018, 07:13 AM
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RBA Leaves Interest Rate Unchanged At Record Low



The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday decided to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold at a record low citing sluggish wage growth and low inflation.

The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia, governed by Philip Lowe, voted to maintain the cash rate at 1.50 percent. The interest rate has remained at the current level since August 2016.

"Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time," the bank said in a statement.

Policymakers observed that the low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Policymakers expect further progress in the reduction of unemployment and inflation returning to target, but this progress is likely to be gradual.

The Australian economy is performing well with the GDP growth expected to average around 3.5 percent for this year and next, the bank said.

Inflation is forecast to pick up in the coming years, with the growth likely to be gradual. The central scenario is for inflation to be 2.25 percent in 2019 and a bit higher in the following year.

Labour market remained strong with the unemployment rate declining to five percent over the past year. As the economy is expected to continue to grow above trend, a further reduction in the unemployment rate is likely, the bank noted.

Concerning property market, the RBA said conditions in the Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have continued to ease and nationwide measures of rent inflation remain low.

The outlook for household consumption remained as a source of uncertainty for the economy, the bank cautioned.

Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. Growth in credit extended to owner-occupiers has eased, while the demand by investors has slowed noticeably due to changing dynamics of the housing market, it added.

The RBA statement sounded a little cautious by assessing external conditions to be less favorable, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Thieliant suggested that the Bank seemed to be getting a bit more worried about the downturn in the housing market.

Given dovish outlook for the economy and prices, the economist believe that rates will not rise until late in 2020.

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IFX Gertrude
post Dec 5 2018, 04:35 AM
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China Services PMI Surges In November - Caixin



The services sector in China continued to expand in November, and at a greatly accelerated rate, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Wednesday with a PMI score of 53.8.

That beat expectations for 50.8, which would have been unchanged from the October reading. It also moves further above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Also, the composite index jumped to 51.9 in November, up from 50.5 a month earlier.

Individually, November marked the steepest increase in services activity in five months, while manufacturing production remained stable.

Composite new businesses climbed at their quickest pace since June, while inflationary pressures cooled.

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