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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 5 2019, 05:55 AM
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European Economics Preview: Germany Factory Orders Data Due



Factory orders from Germany and quarterly national accounts from Switzerland are due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 1.45 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to release Swiss GDP data. The economy is forecast to grow 0.2 percent sequentially in the second quarter after expanding 0.6 percent in the first quarter.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to publish Germany's factory orders data for July. Orders are forecast to shrink 1.5 percent on month, in contrast to June's 2.5 percent increase.

At 3.00 am ET, retail sales data is due from the Czech Republic. Economists expect sales to climb 5.9 percent on year in July, following a 0.2 percent rise in June.

Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank is set to announce its rate decision. The bank is forecast to leave its key rate unchanged at -0.25 percent.

In the meantime, IHS Markit is scheduled to issue Germany's construction PMI data for August.

At 5.00 am ET, Greece unemployment data is due for June.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 6 2019, 04:52 AM
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Euro drops to new lows against the pound, but the joy will be short-lived



EUR/GBP fell below a critical level of 0.90. The positive attitude towards the British pound makes the EUR/GBP pair forget about further growth and break through the critical support level of 0.90 in order to move lower to new two-month lows. The euro weakened amid optimism over Brexit and is falling for the third consecutive session in response to an obvious change in sentiment against the British pound. The currency is recovering amid growing optimism, especially after British lawmakers voted to postpone Brexit's deadline and the government did not approve a bill calling for a general election on October 15. Nevertheless, the scenario of a "hard" Brexit without a deal is still under consideration, which means that soon political instability will return to the UK.



What to expect from GBP? The renewed growth momentum is pushing the currency to new heights in the light of recent political events in the UK. Nevertheless, according to forecasts, sterling will remain under pressure, as political uncertainty has not disappeared, and the likelihood of general elections is also high, and this is only a matter of time. On the other hand, the Bank of England remains "silent" in relation to Brexit and its potential consequences. It is worth recalling that at its last meeting, the central bank refused to include the likelihood of a "hard divorce" scenario in its forecasts.

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IFX Yvonne
post Sep 10 2019, 05:56 AM
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Australia Business Confidence Weakens In August: NAB



Australia's business confidence and conditions deteriorated in August, survey results from the National Australia Bank showed Tuesday.

The business confidence index fell to +1 from +4 in July. Likewise, the business conditions index declined to +1 from +3 a month ago.

Business confidence and other forward looking indicators suggest there is unlikely to be an imminent turnaround in business conditions, NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said.

The business survey for August was a disappointment on the headline figures, and consistent with domestic demand growth remaining significantly below potential, Tom Kennedy, an economist at J.P. Morgan said.



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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 11 2019, 02:18 AM
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AUD/USD paused, awaits news after a five-day rally



After a sharp rally during the previous five trading days and adding almost 150 pips over this period, the AUD/USD pair entered the consolidation phase and fluctuates in a narrow range near 0.6850. Earlier, the National Australia Bank reported that the business confidence index fell to 1 point in August from 4 points in July, and the business conditions index fell to 1 point from 2 points, in such conditions it is difficult for the aussie to continue to press the dollar. In addition, the producer price index in China fell to -0.8% in August year-on-year, which further inhibits growth.



On the other hand, the lack of significant macroeconomic data from the United States did not make it possible for the US dollar index to strengthen and limited losses in the pair. At the moment, the US dollar index shows a small daily gain of 98.38 points. It seems that investors are likely to stand aside and watch, waiting for new events around the trade conflict between the US and China. Earlier today, the White House trade adviser said that "patience is needed regarding trade negotiations between the US and China," but he has not made any statements hinting at progress in the negotiations.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 12 2019, 03:02 AM
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Japan Core Machine Orders Sink 6.6% In July



Core machine orders in Japan were down a seasonally adjusted 6.6 percent on month in July, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 896.9 billion yen.

That beat expectations for a fall of 8.1 percent following the 13.9 percent surge in June.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders rose 0.3 percent - again exceeding expectations for a fall of 4.3 percent following the 12.5 percent gain in the previous month.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by 0.1 percent in July.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 13 2019, 02:21 AM
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EUR/GBP returns to growth, pound lacks good news



A Scottish court ruled that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful and the uncertainty exacerbated the GBP. The EUR/GBP pair returns to the level of 0.8940 after three consecutive sessions of decline. Returning to the political situation in the UK, one should take into account the forecasts, which set out several worst-case scenarios in the event of the hard version of Brexit at the end of October. Analysts emphasize the high likelihood of riots, rising food prices and shortages of medical supplies. On the other hand, the euro also cannot find support. The German Consumer Price Growth Index is likely to fall by 0.2 percent in August compared with July and grow by 1.4 percent year on year. Additional data indicate a decrease in industrial production in the eurozone in July by 0.4 percent compared with the previous month and by two percent year on year, which is below market expectations.

The sale of the British pound also caused a slight downward correction after recent positive results. Sterling will remain under scrutiny, as political pressure has not subsided, and the issue with Brexit has not been resolved. Now everyone is looking at the events taking place in the political arena of Great Britain during the period of "inaction" of the Parliament, which will begin its work in mid-October, it is expected that the queen will personally deliver a speech. At the same time, we remember that the Bank of England recently ruled out "negative interest rates" and expressed its opinion about the "likelihood of a recession in the country."


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IFX Yvonne
post Sep 16 2019, 09:26 AM
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Denmark Producer Prices Fall In August



Denmark's producer prices declined further in August, figures from Statistics Denmark showed on Monday.

The producer prices fell 3.1 percent year-on-year in August, following a 2.2 percent decline in July.

Domestic market prices decreased 4.4 percent annually in July and foreign market prices declined 1.4 percent.

Import prices fell 1.0 percent annually in August and decreased 0.3 percent from the previous month.

On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.3 percent in August, after a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month.



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IFX Yvonne
post Sep 16 2019, 09:27 AM
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Denmark Producer Prices Fall In August



Denmark's producer prices declined further in August, figures from Statistics Denmark showed on Monday.

The producer prices fell 3.1 percent year-on-year in August, following a 2.2 percent decline in July.

Domestic market prices decreased 4.4 percent annually in July and foreign market prices declined 1.4 percent.

Import prices fell 1.0 percent annually in August and decreased 0.3 percent from the previous month.

On a monthly basis, producer prices fell 0.3 percent in August, after a 0.5 percent rise in the previous month.



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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 17 2019, 04:12 AM
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Australia House Prices Sink 0.7% In Q2



House prices in Australia were down 0.7 percent on quarter in the second quarter of 2019, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Tuesday.

That exceeded expectations for a decline of 1.1 percent following the 3.0 percent drop in the three months prior.

On a yearly basis, house prices fell 7.4 percent - unchanged from Q1 but again beating forecasts for a fall of 7.7 percent.

The total value of residential dwellings in Australia fell A$17,611.6m to A$6,610,590.1m this quarter. The mean price of residential dwellings fell A$4,400 to A$638,900. The number of residential dwellings rose by 43,100 to 10,347,200.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 18 2019, 02:52 AM
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Japan Has Y136.3 Billion Deficit In August



Japan posted a merchandise trade deficit of 136.329 billion yen in August, the Ministry of Finance said on Wednesday.

That beat forecasts for a shortfall of 365.4 billion yen following the 250.7 billion yen deficit in July.

Exports were down 8.2 percent on year to 6.140 trillion yen, also topping expectations for a decline of 10.9 percent following the 1.5 percent annual drop in the previous month.

Imports sank an annual 12.0 percent versus forecasts for a decline of 11.0 percent after easing 1.2 percent a month earlier.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 19 2019, 05:28 AM
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Bank Of Japan Keeps Policy Unchanged



The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged as widely expected on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve resorted to further easing.

The Policy Board of the BoJ voted 7-2 to maintain interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the bank.

The bank said it will purchase government bonds so that the yield of 10-year JGBs will remain at around zero percent.

Further, the bank will purchase JGBs in a flexible manner so that their outstanding amount will increase at an annual pace of about JPY 80 trillion.

The bank said it will reexamine economic and price developments at the next monetary policy meeting in October, when it updates the outlook for economic activity and prices. The bank repeated that it will not hesitate to take additional easing measures if needed.

It is worth recalling that the Bank made similar pledges in 2016 amid concerns over China's economy, but never followed through on them, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Since then, concerns over the impact of looser policy on the health of banks have intensified. As such, the BoJ will keep its interest rate targets unchanged over the coming year, the economist noted.

Regarding economic outlook, the BoJ said Japan's economy is likely to continue on a moderate expanding trend, despite being affected by the slowdown in overseas economies for the time being.

Further, the bank said it is necessary to pay closer attention to the possibility of losing momentum towards achieving the price stability target.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 20 2019, 03:46 AM
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The dollar is trying to unravel the Fed's plans



The central event of this week - the next meeting of the Federal Reserve - did not bring clarity. Analysts continue to wonder what to expect from the regulator in the future.

However, unlike US President Donald Trump, who called Fed Chairman Jerome Powell "a terrible communicator," financial markets seem to have clearly understood the hints of the latter. The Federal Reserve chief's statement that the central bank is ready to aggressively reduce the interest rate in the event of a deterioration in the well-being of the US economy, caused the S&P 500 to grow most rapidly over the past six weeks. Prior to that, the index dipped under the influence of the regulator's rate forecasts: 7 out of 17 FOMC members believe that it should be reduced by 25 basis points by the end of the year, 5 believe that it will remain unchanged, and 5 would like to see not one, but two acts of monetary expansion. Apparently, investors were frightened not by the easing of the Fed's monetary policy (of which I have been certain for a long time already), but by the fact that the rate on federal funds is likely to remain at 1.75% until the end of next year.

Of course, you can talk for a long time about what affected the split in the ranks of the FOMC (3 out of 10 Committee members voted against lowering the interest rate from 2.25% to 2%), but when so much uncertainty is observed on the market, pluralism of opinions is inevitable. Experts call the current situation as "Powell's puzzle": the Fed is forced to balance between strong macro statistics in the United States, which allowed it to increase the country's GDP for the current year from 2.1% to 2.2%, and international threats, including trade conflicts and Brexit.

The mixed reaction of the markets and the lack of a clear signal from the Fed about the weakening of monetary policy in 2019 caused another bout of anger from the head of the White House, Donald Trump.

"Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve Fail Again. No "guts", no sense, no vision! A terrible communicator!", D. Trump wrote on Twitter.

Although the Fed chairman prefers to ignore such attacks against him, this time he commented on the idea of negative interest rates called for by the US president. According to J. Powell, if the situation begins to deteriorate, then the central bank will revive QE rather than lower the federal funds rate below zero.

The day before, the greenback slightly strengthened across the entire spectrum following the results of the September FOMC meeting, but today it is gradually losing ground, since the Fed still does not have a consensus on further actions to adjust the monetary rate.

The market is not completely sure how the US central bank will behave. Most analysts expect the regulator to further trim the rate on federal funds this year, but only one reduction is laid.

Probably, investors will wait for some new signals. In recent days, the trade war between the US and China has left the information field. If another escalation of the conflict occurs, the market may perceive this as a signal for more active easing of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve.

"It is obvious that the Fed does not have a consensus on what to do next: on the one hand, D. Trump presses, blaming the central bank leadership for incompetence and demanding an urgent interest rate cut to zero or lower, on the other, there are no formal reasons for this," he said ING chief economist James Niley.

Valentin Marinov, Head of Currency Research at Credit Agricole, calls the FOMC decision to trim rates as "hawkish" cuts, believing that such a move is positive for the greenback.

"I believe that currencies that are more closely correlated with investor sentiment regarding risky assets will be more vulnerable to the dollar than the euro, yen and gold," he said.

"I think the Fed will succeed if it can slightly weaken the dollar's position, and make the curve of its fall rate a little steeper. Markets have already shown the expectation of another cut in the base interest rate in December, "said Jim Caron of Morgan Stanley.

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IFX Gertrude
post Today, 07:04 AM
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European Economics Preview: Eurozone Flash PMI Data Due



Flash Purchasing Managers' survey data from euro area is due on Monday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 3.15 am ET, IHS Markit is slated to issue France flash PMI data for September. The composite output index is forecast to drop to 52.5 from 52.9 in August.

At 3.30 am ET, Germany's flash PMI data is due. Economists forecast the composite PMI to rise to 52.0 in September from 51.7 in August.

At 4.00 am ET, IHS Markit is scheduled to publish euro area final PMI results. The composite PMI is seen at 52.0 in September versus 51.9 in August. At 4.30 am ET, UK household finance data is due from IHS Markit.

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