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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 3 2019, 03:04 AM
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Japan Services PMI Falls To 52.8 In September - Jibun



Japanese firms' inflation expectations held steady in the third quarter, the Tankan The services sector in Japan continued to expand in September, albeit at a slower rate, the latest survey from Jibun Bank revealed on Friday with a PMI score of 52.8.

That's down from the 22-month high of 53.3 in August, although it remains well above the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Individually, output was up solidly in September, although new orders grew at a pace below trend for 2019. Selling charges increased only fractionally.

The survey also showed that the composite index came in at 51.5, down from 51.9 in August.

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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 4 2019, 05:30 AM
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UK Economic Conditions Deteriorate On Weak Manufacturing Activity: BCC



The UK economic conditions weakened in the third quarter reflecting a marked deterioration in manufacturing sector activity, survey results from the British Chambers of Commerce showed Friday.

According to Quarterly?Economic?Survey, manufacturing firms reporting increased domestic sales fell to zero. The domestic order balance entered negative territory for the first time in seven years, to -7 in the third quarter. Both are at their weakest since the fourth quarter of 2011.

The balance of manufacturing firms reporting increased export sales dropped to +3, the lowest level since the fourth quarter of 2015 and the balance for export orders went negative and came in at its weakest level since the third quarter of 2009.

The dominant services sector reported a decrease in the balance of firms reporting increased domestic sales and orders, and export orders, the survey showed. The domestic sales balance of service providers slid to 15 and the balance for domestic orders dropped marginally to 9 in the third quarter.

Manufacturers' cashflow position - a key indicator of the financial health of a business, deteriorated. In the services sector, cashflow held steady at a low level.

"A stuttering services sector coupled with a worrying downturn in manufacturing activity indicates that any bounce back in UK GDP growth from the contraction in the second quarter is likely to be underwhelming at best," Suren?Thiru, Head of Economics at the BCC, said.

"This is a reality check, not scaremongering or politicking. These are some of the worst figures we've seen in a decade - and jobs, businesses, and the future success of our communities are on the line," Adam Marshall, Director General of the BCC, said.

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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 7 2019, 05:34 AM
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China's Forex Reserves Decline In September



China's foreign exchange reserves declined in September, figures from the People's Bank of China showed over the weekend.

Forex reserves totaled $3.092 trillion at the end of September compared to $3.107 trillion in August. The expected level was $3.105 trillion.

The currency exchange rate and changes in asset prices affected the level of foreign exchange reserves.

Martin Lynge Rasmussen, an economist at Capital Economics, said the central bank relied on state banks during August to contain forex volatility, but the latest forex reserves figures suggests that last month this may have been either replaced with, or supplemented by, direct forex sales by the PBoC.

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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 8 2019, 03:10 AM
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At a breakneck height: recession as a "lift" for gold



Statements by a number of economists about the risk of a recession in the US economy are gaining momentum. Experts analyzed how the implementation of such a scenario will affect the price of gold, and concluded that the precious metal will appreciably rise in price.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs, the largest US bank, are confident that in the fourth quarter of this year, the cost of the yellow metal will rise to $1,600 per ounce. The reason for this, analysts believe a high probability of a recession in the US economy. Analysts of the leading analytical company Independent Strategy agree with them. They claim that in 2020, the price of gold may increase by 30% from the current key value of $1,500. Accordingly, it can reach $2000 per ounce, according to the Independent Strategy.

The appreciation of precious metals will be facilitated by the desire of market participants to maintain their capital. It is known that gold is best suited for this purpose, and the increased demand for yellow metal pushes its value up. Analysts are very optimistic about the future prospects of the gold market. They are confident that the precious metal will receive support for growth amid fear of a recession in the US economy. Note that the main threats to financial markets are weak data on the US labor market and a slowdown in economic growth.

Currently, the XAU/USD pair is trading near the levels of 1502-1503. According to analysts, the price of gold has generated two signals over the past month, one of which shows a direction to increase, the other - to decline. After the breakdown of the support level of 1487.70, the price of the precious metal may fall to the target level of 1418.25. In the case of a positive scenario and an update of the level of 1557.20, gold can reach the target level of 1595.00, analysts said. In the long run, due to increasing instability in the global economy, analysts recommend opening long positions in precious metals.

At the moment, the yellow metal is trading in the range of $1,505– $1,507 per ounce, completing the correction phase. Gold prices recovered the lion's share of the previous loss in relation to major currencies, as global stock markets fell after the US due to the weakest data on production in the US. At the moment, the score is 1:0 in favor of the precious metal, which plays into the hands of the high probability of monetary policy easing by regulators of Australia and Japan.

In the short term, the yellow metal could quickly return to local resistance at $1,530 per ounce, analysts warn. For further take-off to multi-year highs, powerful geopolitical or economic triggers will be required, the main of which may be the risk of a recession in the United States. Goldman Sachs analysts emphasize that the long-term forecast for the cost of precious metals is highly dependent on economic growth in the United States. Analysts recall the growing risk of a recession in the US economy, which is increasing annually. Goldman Sachs believes that the recession in the United States will become a kind of "lift" for gold, capable of pushing the precious metal to the next price peaks.

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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 9 2019, 05:59 AM
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Australia Consumer Sentiment Weakest Since Mid-2015



Australia's consumer confidence weakened to the lowest level in more than four years in October despite interest rate reductions, survey results from Westpac showed Wednesday.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 92.8 in October from 98.2 in September. This was the lowest score since July 2015.

Typically, an interest rate cut boosts confidence particularly around consumers' expectations for and assessments of their own finances.

However, in this survey the indicator measuring assessment of current family finances dropped 4.9 percent to 80.2 and that for future family finances slid 3.7 percent to a five-year low of 93.3.

Despite the rate cut, assessment for the economy for the next year plunged by 6 percent to 87.1 and the five-year outlook declined 9.1 percent to 88.9.

Consumer attitudes towards spending also deteriorated in October. The 'time to buy a major household item' sub-index declined 4.2 percent to 114.5.

Global events also contributed to the weak result in October with the deterioration in US-China trade relations weighing on the global economy amid speculation of a recession in the US, Bill Evans, chief economist at Westpac, said.

Evans noted that the board of the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to take some time to assess the impact of the three rate cuts before deciding to move again.

Westpac expects that next move will be a further cut in the cash rate to 0.5 percent in February next year.

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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 10 2019, 03:36 AM
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Australia Home Loans Climb 3.2% In August



The total number of home loans in Australia was up a seasonally adjusted 3.2 percent on month in August, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday - coming in at 33,468.

That exceeded expectations for an increase of 2.3 percent following the upwardly revised 4.3 percent increase in July (originally 4.2 percent).

Personal finance commitments fell 2.2 percent in August following a 3.8 percent fall in July and was down 12.9 percent on August 2018.

The value of new lending commitments for owner occupier dwellings rose 1.9 per cent nationally in August, with rises in all states and territories apart from the Northern Territory.

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IFX Gertrude
post Oct 11 2019, 04:48 AM
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Sri Lanka Central Bank Keeps Rates Unchanged



Sri Lanka's central bank left its key interest rates unchanged despite weak economic growth and higher inflation.

The monetary board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka decided to keep the Standing Deposit Facility Rate and the Standing Lending Facility Rate steady at 7.00 percent and 8.00 percent, respectively, the bank said in a statement on Friday.

The bank had reduced the rate by 50 basis points each in May and August.

The economic growth eased to 1.6 percent in the second quarter as the Easter Sunday attacks weighed heavily on the service sector activity. The central bank forecast economic growth to remain subdued this year but a gradual recovery is expected over the medium term.

Further, the bank expects inflation to stabilize well within the desired range of 4-6 percent with transitory supply side price pressures easing.

The vulnerability of the currency is likely to be a key barrier to looser policy in the near term, Alex Holmes, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

Global sentiment should start to improve around the middle of next year, and this could allow the central bank to cut interest rates further, Holmes noted. The economist expects a 50 basis point reduction in the second half of next year.

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