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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 5 2019, 05:55 AM
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European Economics Preview: Germany Factory Orders Data Due



Factory orders from Germany and quarterly national accounts from Switzerland are due on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 1.45 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs is set to release Swiss GDP data. The economy is forecast to grow 0.2 percent sequentially in the second quarter after expanding 0.6 percent in the first quarter.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis is scheduled to publish Germany's factory orders data for July. Orders are forecast to shrink 1.5 percent on month, in contrast to June's 2.5 percent increase.

At 3.00 am ET, retail sales data is due from the Czech Republic. Economists expect sales to climb 5.9 percent on year in July, following a 0.2 percent rise in June.

Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank is set to announce its rate decision. The bank is forecast to leave its key rate unchanged at -0.25 percent.

In the meantime, IHS Markit is scheduled to issue Germany's construction PMI data for August.

At 5.00 am ET, Greece unemployment data is due for June.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 6 2019, 04:52 AM
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Euro drops to new lows against the pound, but the joy will be short-lived



EUR/GBP fell below a critical level of 0.90. The positive attitude towards the British pound makes the EUR/GBP pair forget about further growth and break through the critical support level of 0.90 in order to move lower to new two-month lows. The euro weakened amid optimism over Brexit and is falling for the third consecutive session in response to an obvious change in sentiment against the British pound. The currency is recovering amid growing optimism, especially after British lawmakers voted to postpone Brexit's deadline and the government did not approve a bill calling for a general election on October 15. Nevertheless, the scenario of a "hard" Brexit without a deal is still under consideration, which means that soon political instability will return to the UK.



What to expect from GBP? The renewed growth momentum is pushing the currency to new heights in the light of recent political events in the UK. Nevertheless, according to forecasts, sterling will remain under pressure, as political uncertainty has not disappeared, and the likelihood of general elections is also high, and this is only a matter of time. On the other hand, the Bank of England remains "silent" in relation to Brexit and its potential consequences. It is worth recalling that at its last meeting, the central bank refused to include the likelihood of a "hard divorce" scenario in its forecasts.

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IFX Yvonne
post Sep 10 2019, 05:56 AM
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Australia Business Confidence Weakens In August: NAB



Australia's business confidence and conditions deteriorated in August, survey results from the National Australia Bank showed Tuesday.

The business confidence index fell to +1 from +4 in July. Likewise, the business conditions index declined to +1 from +3 a month ago.

Business confidence and other forward looking indicators suggest there is unlikely to be an imminent turnaround in business conditions, NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said.

The business survey for August was a disappointment on the headline figures, and consistent with domestic demand growth remaining significantly below potential, Tom Kennedy, an economist at J.P. Morgan said.



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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 11 2019, 02:18 AM
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AUD/USD paused, awaits news after a five-day rally



After a sharp rally during the previous five trading days and adding almost 150 pips over this period, the AUD/USD pair entered the consolidation phase and fluctuates in a narrow range near 0.6850. Earlier, the National Australia Bank reported that the business confidence index fell to 1 point in August from 4 points in July, and the business conditions index fell to 1 point from 2 points, in such conditions it is difficult for the aussie to continue to press the dollar. In addition, the producer price index in China fell to -0.8% in August year-on-year, which further inhibits growth.



On the other hand, the lack of significant macroeconomic data from the United States did not make it possible for the US dollar index to strengthen and limited losses in the pair. At the moment, the US dollar index shows a small daily gain of 98.38 points. It seems that investors are likely to stand aside and watch, waiting for new events around the trade conflict between the US and China. Earlier today, the White House trade adviser said that "patience is needed regarding trade negotiations between the US and China," but he has not made any statements hinting at progress in the negotiations.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 12 2019, 03:02 AM
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Japan Core Machine Orders Sink 6.6% In July



Core machine orders in Japan were down a seasonally adjusted 6.6 percent on month in July, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 896.9 billion yen.

That beat expectations for a fall of 8.1 percent following the 13.9 percent surge in June.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders rose 0.3 percent - again exceeding expectations for a fall of 4.3 percent following the 12.5 percent gain in the previous month.

The total value of machinery orders received by 280 manufacturers operating in Japan increased by 0.1 percent in July.

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IFX Gertrude
post Sep 13 2019, 02:21 AM
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EUR/GBP returns to growth, pound lacks good news



A Scottish court ruled that the suspension of Parliament was unlawful and the uncertainty exacerbated the GBP. The EUR/GBP pair returns to the level of 0.8940 after three consecutive sessions of decline. Returning to the political situation in the UK, one should take into account the forecasts, which set out several worst-case scenarios in the event of the hard version of Brexit at the end of October. Analysts emphasize the high likelihood of riots, rising food prices and shortages of medical supplies. On the other hand, the euro also cannot find support. The German Consumer Price Growth Index is likely to fall by 0.2 percent in August compared with July and grow by 1.4 percent year on year. Additional data indicate a decrease in industrial production in the eurozone in July by 0.4 percent compared with the previous month and by two percent year on year, which is below market expectations.

The sale of the British pound also caused a slight downward correction after recent positive results. Sterling will remain under scrutiny, as political pressure has not subsided, and the issue with Brexit has not been resolved. Now everyone is looking at the events taking place in the political arena of Great Britain during the period of "inaction" of the Parliament, which will begin its work in mid-October, it is expected that the queen will personally deliver a speech. At the same time, we remember that the Bank of England recently ruled out "negative interest rates" and expressed its opinion about the "likelihood of a recession in the country."


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