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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 17, 2021, 08:48 AM
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post Nov 17, 2021, 08:48 AM
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EUR/USD: US dollar is rising, but the euro is not

It is increasingly difficult for the Euro currency to keep its position, pretending that its decline is an annoying misunderstanding. In the EUR/USD pair, the euro has to act at the limit of its capabilities in order not to collapse.

Analysts believe that the catalyst for the euro's collapse was the "dovish" statements of ECB President Christine Lagarde. Representatives of the European regulator still consider it inappropriate to raise the rate and tighten the monetary policy. At the same time, the ECB, along with the Fed, significantly reduced the volume of the asset repurchase program. However, the similarity with the strategies of the leading central banks ended there. With regard to the rate hike, the European regulator disagrees with the Fed, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Canada. The ECB hed is confident that the tightening of the monetary policy will harm the European economy.

The response to Lagarde's stubbornness was a sharp plunge of the euro, which has lost its position, trying to consolidate at current levels. Meanwhile, the US currency continues to test the highs. According to experts, the US dollar received a new impetus after another statement by C. Lagarde regarding the "temporary" nature of inflation. The ECB believes that it will return to the target 2% in the near future.

It is possible that the European regulator repeats the mistake of the American one. Earlier, the Fed claimed that high inflation in the US is a temporary phenomenon, and now the ECB is "persuading" itself and the markets in a similar way. Experts consider this a dangerous misconception, for which they will have to pay with holes in the economy. Inflation is considered the main way to normalize the MP, and statements by central banks about its temporary nature increase price pressure.

In view of the euro's weakening, the US dollar felt a surge of strength and became the leader once again. The US currency was helped by inspiring data on US retail sales. According to reports, this indicator increased in October much faster than experts expected. In the medium term, this will force the Fed to accelerate the reduction of the asset purchase program due to persistently high inflation.

Analysts are concerned about the long-term downward trend of the EUR/USD pair, recorded since the summer of 2021. Currently, the pair has broken through the 200-week moving average and is headed lower. This is extremely negative for the European currency, which is now more vulnerable to inflation than the American one. On Wednesday morning, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the level of 1.1301, hoping to win back a series of falls, but without much success.

Experts consider geopolitics to be another reason for the weakness of the euro, in particular the problems of the UK related to Brexit and Northern Ireland. Moreover, the expectation of the final estimate of annual inflation in the eurozone also exerts additional pressure on the euro. According to preliminary forecasts, consumer price growth increased to 4.1% in October. This is the maximum price turn in the last 13 years.

Analysts believe that the euro has currently no growth impulse. If the ECB does not change the current monetary strategy, the indicated currency will remain in the outsiders and test the bottom. At the same time, inflation fears contribute to the growth of the yield of treasuries, providing significant support for the US currency. In such a situation, the euro has a very low chance of recovery. However, possible changes in the ECB's policy will give a head start to the EUR. If the regulator considers the possibility of raising rates in 2022, the situation will change in favor of the euro.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 18, 2021, 09:26 AM
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post Nov 18, 2021, 09:26 AM
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Demand for all types of metals dramatically exceeds supply

The world's six most significant industrial metals are demonstrating supply shortages for the first time in more than a decade as logistical shocks and high demand cause anxiety among buyers.

Spot prices for base metals (from aluminum to zinc) on the London Metal Exchange are rapidly exceeding futures, a condition known as backwardation that has occurred for the first time since 2007. Buyers are paying a premium for access to metal amid a slump in inventory exchanges, delays in the supply chain, production disruptions and rising demand for industrial goods from construction to consumer electronics.

As for copper and tin, the magnitude of the reversal development reached record highs in recent months, provoking panic among industrial consumers, who have faced escalating supply problems since the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Signs of tight physical supply in the metals market also act as a counterbalance to growing nervousness about the broader macroeconomic outlook for major industrialized countries and especially China, the largest consumer of commodities. Spreads have reduced considerably over the past month, regarding aluminum, despite prices having fallen from multi-year highs.

Oliver Nugent, a base metals analyst at Citigroup Inc. said that taking into account diverse use and supply dynamics of individual metals, the unusual synchronized tightness of the six major LME contracts was a sign of the logistical shocks and demand growth widely distribution since the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic.

Nugent noted that this aspect was obvious. He said that consumers mostly faced logistic problems. Nugent highlighted that this fact indicated very robust demand.

Evidently, complete tightness may not last long. Backwardation in copper and lead markets is disappearing, even as aluminum and nickel spreads reduce. Nugent stated that one of the consequences of supply chain disorder was that price spreads on other global exchanges could reduce further, even as the LME market softened.

As for copper, for example, there is a growing backwardation of contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, despite LME spreads retreating from the record highs observed during last month's unprecedented supply contraction.

Copper futures fell 0.9% to $9,472 a tonne at 11:57 a.m. in London, with metal shipments to LME warehouses in the United States helping to partially dispel supply fears after the cuts.

Aluminum prices on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.8% to $2,594.50 a tonne on Wednesday, compared to a high above $3,200 last month.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 19, 2021, 07:32 AM
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post Nov 19, 2021, 07:32 AM
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JAPAN OVERALL INFLATION RISES 0.1% ON YEAR IN OCTOBER



Overall consumer prices in Japan were up 0.1 percent on year in October, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday.

That was in line with expectations and down from 0.2 percent in September.

Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food prices, also rose an annual 0.1 percent - unchanged and matching forecasts.

Individually, prices were up for food, housing, fuel, furniture, education and recreation; prices were down for clothing, medical care and communications.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, overall inflation slipped 0.3 percent and core CPI dipped 0.1 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 22, 2021, 03:15 AM
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post Nov 22, 2021, 03:15 AM
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HONG KONG INFLATION DATA DUE ON MONDAY



Hong Kong will on Monday release October figures for consumer prices, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

In September, the annual inflation rate was 1.4 percent.

Taiwan will provide October numbers for export orders and unemployment. In September, export orders surged 25.7 percent on year, while the jobless rate was 3.92 percent.

China will release the prime rates for one-year and five-year loans; previously, they were 3.85 percent and 4.65 percent, respectively.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 23, 2021, 04:57 AM
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post Nov 23, 2021, 04:57 AM
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SOUTH KOREA CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX IMPROVES TIO 107.6 - BOK



Consumer confidence in South Korea picked up steam in November, the latest survey from the Bank of Korea showed on Tuesday with a sentiment index score of 107.6 - up from 106.8 in October.

Consumer sentiment regarding current living standards was unchanged at 92, while the outlook was one point lower than in the previous month at 97.

Consumer sentiment related to future household income was unchanged at 101, and the outlook was three points higher at 115.

Consumer sentiment concerning current domestic economic conditions was one point higher than in the previous month at 81, and the outlook was unchanged at 96.

The expected inflation rate for the following year was 2.7 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 24, 2021, 07:05 AM
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post Nov 24, 2021, 07:05 AM
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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMAN IFO BUSINESS CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



Business sentiment survey results from Germany and France are due on Wednesday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.45 am ET, France's statistical office Insee publishes business sentiment survey results. The business confidence index is expected to drop to 106 in November from 107 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, business sentiment data is due from the Czech Republic.

At 4.00 am ET, Germany's ifo Institute is scheduled to issue business sentiment data. The confidence index is seen at 96.6 in November versus 97.7 in October.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Industrial Trends survey results. The order book balance is expected to improve to 13 in November from 9 in the previous month.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 25, 2021, 07:28 AM
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post Nov 25, 2021, 07:28 AM
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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: GERMANY REVISED GDP, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA DUE



Revised quarterly national accounts and consumer sentiment survey results are due from Germany on Thursday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's GDP data for the third quarter. According to initial estimate, the economy had expanded 1.8 percent sequentially, after rising 1.9 percent in the second quarter.

In the meantime, the market research group Gfk is slated to issue Germany's consumer confidence survey results. The forward-looking sentiment index is seen at -0.5 in December versus +0.9 in November.

At 3.00 am ET, Spain's INE is slated to issue producer prices data for October. Prices had advanced 23.6 percent annually in September.

Half an hour later, Sweden's central bank announces its monetary policy decision. In the meantime, Statistics Sweden issues producer prices and household lending data. At 4.00 am ET, Poland's unemployment data is due. The jobless rate is seen at 5.5 percent in October versus 5.6 percent in September.

At 6.00 am ET, the Confederation of British Industry releases Distributive Trades survey results.

At 7.30 am ET, the European Central Bank publishes the account of the monetary policy meeting of the governing council held on October 27 and 28.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 26, 2021, 07:37 AM
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post Nov 26, 2021, 07:37 AM
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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: SWISS GDP DATA DUE



Quarterly national accounts data from Switzerland is due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's import prices for October. Import price inflation is expected to climb to 19.6 percent from 17.7 percent in September.

In the meantime, retail sales and household consumption figures are due from Norway.

At 2.45 am ET, France Insee is scheduled to issue consumer sentiment survey results. The confidence index is expected to fall marginally to 98 in November from 99 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, releases Swiss GDP data for the third quarter. Economists forecast the economy to grow 2 percent sequentially after rising 1.8 percent in the second quarter. In the meantime, economic tendency survey results are due from Sweden.

At 3.30 am ET, Statistics Sweden publishes retail sales for October. Sales had dropped 0.3 percent on month in September.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank releases monetary aggregates for October. M3 is forecast to grow 7.4 percent annually, the same rate as seen in September.

Also, business confidence from Italy and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results from Austria are due.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 26, 2021, 07:38 AM
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post Nov 26, 2021, 07:38 AM
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EUROPEAN ECONOMICS PREVIEW: SWISS GDP DATA DUE



Quarterly national accounts data from Switzerland is due on Friday, headlining a light day for the European economic news.

At 2.00 am ET, Destatis releases Germany's import prices for October. Import price inflation is expected to climb to 19.6 percent from 17.7 percent in September.

In the meantime, retail sales and household consumption figures are due from Norway.

At 2.45 am ET, France Insee is scheduled to issue consumer sentiment survey results. The confidence index is expected to fall marginally to 98 in November from 99 in October.

At 3.00 am ET, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, or SECO, releases Swiss GDP data for the third quarter. Economists forecast the economy to grow 2 percent sequentially after rising 1.8 percent in the second quarter. In the meantime, economic tendency survey results are due from Sweden.

At 3.30 am ET, Statistics Sweden publishes retail sales for October. Sales had dropped 0.3 percent on month in September.

At 4.00 am ET, the European Central Bank releases monetary aggregates for October. M3 is forecast to grow 7.4 percent annually, the same rate as seen in September.

Also, business confidence from Italy and manufacturing Purchasing Managers' survey results from Austria are due.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 29, 2021, 07:44 AM
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post Nov 29, 2021, 07:44 AM
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DUTCH PRODUCER CONFIDENCE IMPROVES IN NOVEMBER



Dutch producer confidence improves in November, data from the Central Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

The producer sentiment index rose to 12.7 in November from 12.3 in October. This was above the average score of 0.7 seen over the past twenty years.

The latest reading was the strongest since 1985.

Producers were particularly positive about the order position, while assessment of stocks of finished goods improved, the agency said.

There were more entrepreneurs who expected their production to increase in the coming three months, the agency said.

The producers in the electrical and machine industry were more positive in November.

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IFX Gertrude
post Yesterday, 08:25 AM
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post Yesterday, 08:25 AM
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ESTONIA RETAIL SALES RISE IN OCTOBER



Estonia retail sales increased in October, data from Statistics Estonia showed on Tuesday.

Retail sales, excluding motor vehicles and motor cycles trade, rose 10.0 percent year-on-year in October.

"In October, turnover increased in grocery stores and in stores selling manufactured goods as well as in enterprises engaged in the retail sale of automotive fuel," Jaanika Tiigiste, leading analyst at Statistics Estonia, said.

The biggest increase was seen in stores selling manufacturing goods, by 16.0 percent and stores selling household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials rose 21.0 percent.

On a monthly basis, retail sales fell 2.0 percent in October.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales gained 1.0 percent monthly in October.

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IFX Gertrude
post Today, 07:18 AM
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post Today, 07:18 AM
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CHINA MANUFACTURING SECTOR FALLS INTO CONTRACTION - CAIXIN



The manufacturing sector in China slipped into contraction territory in November, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.9.

That's down from 50.6 in October and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Chinese manufacturing output rose for the first time since July during November, though the rate of expansion was only fractional. Panel members indicated that firmer market conditions and a relative improvement in energy supply had supported higher production. That said, subdued customer demand, rising costs and limited power supply at some firms dampened overall growth.

Total new work fell marginally in November, following two months of expansion. Some firms linked relatively muted demand conditions to the pandemic and high output prices. New work from abroad also fell, albeit at the softest rate for four months, amid reports of reduced foreign demand due to the ongoing pandemic and challenges in shipping items to clients.

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IFX Gertrude
post Today, 07:18 AM
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post Today, 07:18 AM
Post #3213
CHINA MANUFACTURING SECTOR FALLS INTO CONTRACTION - CAIXIN



The manufacturing sector in China slipped into contraction territory in November, the latest survey from Caixin revealed on Wednesday with a manufacturing PMI score of 49.9.

That's down from 50.6 in October and it falls beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Chinese manufacturing output rose for the first time since July during November, though the rate of expansion was only fractional. Panel members indicated that firmer market conditions and a relative improvement in energy supply had supported higher production. That said, subdued customer demand, rising costs and limited power supply at some firms dampened overall growth.

Total new work fell marginally in November, following two months of expansion. Some firms linked relatively muted demand conditions to the pandemic and high output prices. New work from abroad also fell, albeit at the softest rate for four months, amid reports of reduced foreign demand due to the ongoing pandemic and challenges in shipping items to clients.

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