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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 8 2020, 01:45 AM
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Australia Construction Sector Sinks Deeper Into Contraction



The construction sector in Australia continued to contract in December, and at a faster rate, the latest survey from the Australian Industry Group revealed on Wednesday with a six-and-a-half-year low PMI score of 38.9.

That's down from 40 in November and it moves further beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

Overall activity, new orders and supplier deliveries all grew substantially weaker to fuel the overall index decline.

"Australia's construction sector ended 2019 on a low note with activity, employment and new orders all falling in December. The performance of the engineering construction sector slumped further, declining at the most precipitous rate in more than a decade. Commercial construction and apartment building activity also ended the year heading lower," Ai Group Head of Policy Peter Burn said.

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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 9 2020, 02:26 AM
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China Inflation Data Due On Thursday



China will on Thursday release December numbers for consumer and producer prices, highlighting a busy day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Consumer prices are expected to rise 4.7 percent on year, up from 4.5 percent in November. Producer prices are called lower by an annual 0.4 percent after sliding 1.4 percent in the previous month.

China also will see new loan data for December, with forecasts suggesting a total of 1,250 billion yuan - down from 1,390.0 billion in November.

Australia will provide November numbers for trade balance, with forecasts suggesting a surplus of A$4.10 billion - down from A$4.502 billion in October. Imports were worth A$36.25 billion and exports were at A$40.75 billion in October.

New Zealand will see December figures for the commodity price index from ANZ; in November, the index was up 4.3 percent.

The Philippines will provide November numbers for imports, exports and trade balance. In October, imports were worth $9.57 billion and exports were at $6.32 billion for a trade deficit of $3.25 billion.

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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 10 2020, 04:45 AM
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Japan Leading Index Data Due On Friday



Japan will on Friday see preliminary November numbers for its leading and coincident indexes, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The leading index is tipped to show a score of 90.9, down from 91.6 in October. The coincident is pegged at 95.2, down barely from 92.3 in the previous month.

Japan also will see November figures for household spending, with forecasts suggesting a decline of 2.0 percent on year following the 5.1 percent decline a month earlier.

Australia will provide November numbers for retail sales, with forecasts calling for a gain of 0.4 percent on month following the flat reading in October.

Malaysia will release November data for industrial and manufacturing production; in October, they were up an annual 0.3 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

Singapore will provide November numbers for retail sales; in October, sales were down 2.2 percent on month and 4.3 percent on year.

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IFX Yvonne
post Jan 13 2020, 08:09 AM
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Malaysia Jobless Rate Steady In November



Malaysia's unemployment rate remained stable in November, data from the Department of Statistics showed on Monday.

The jobless rate was 3.2 percent in November, the same as seen in October. In the same period last year, the unemployment rate was 3.3 percent.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, jobless rate rose marginally to 3.3 percent in November from 3.2 percent in October.

The number of unemployed increased to 513,900 in November from 512,100 in the previous month.

The number of employed increased to 15.31 million in November from 15.26 million in the prior month.





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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 14 2020, 03:37 AM
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New Zealand Building Permits Sink 8.5% In November



The total number of building permits issued in New Zealand tumbled a seasonally adjusted 8.5 percent on month in November, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - standing at 3,204.

That followed the downwardly revised 1.3 percent decline in October (originally -1.1 percent).

Individually, permits were issued for 1,980 stand-alone houses, 722 townhouses, 291 apartments and 211 retirement village units.

In the year ended November 2019, the actual number of new dwellings consented was 37,010, up 13 percent from the November 2018 year.

The annual value of non-residential building work consented was NZ$7.4 billion, up 4.9 percent from the November 2018 year.

By region, the numbers of new dwellings consented in the year ended November 2019 (compared with the November 2018 year) were: 14,866 in Auckland - up 16 percent; 4,176 in Waikato - up 13 percent; 3,036 in Wellington - up 11 percent; 5,849 in rest of North Island - up 6.9 percent; 5,310 in Canterbury - up 14 percent; and 3,772 in rest of South Island - up 10 percent.

In the year ended November 2019, non-residential building consents totaled NZ$7.4 billion, up 4.9 percent from the November 2018 year.

In the November 2019 year, the non-residential building types with the highest values were: education buildings - NZ$1.0 billion (down 1.5 percent); shops, restaurants, and bars - NZ$1.0 billion (down 5.4 percent); and offices, administration, and public transport buildings - NZ$981 million (up 6.3 percent).

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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 15 2020, 04:16 AM
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Japan M2 Money Stock Steady At 2.7% In December



The M2 money stock in Japan was up 2.7 percent on year in December, the Bank of Japan said on Wednesday - coming in at 1,041.6 trillion yen.

That follows the 2.7 percent increase in November.

The M3 money stock was up an annual 2.3 percent at 1,374.5 trillion yen following the 2.2 percent gain in the previous month.

The L money stock climbed 2.7 percent at 1,833.6 trillion yen, accelerating from the 2.4 percent gain a month earlier.

For the fourth quarter of 2019, M2 was up 2.6 percent, M3 was up 2.2 percent and L also rose 2.3 percent.

For all of 2019, M2 gained 2.4 percent, M3 added 2.1 percent and L rose 1.9 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 16 2020, 02:43 AM
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Japan Core Machine Orders Surge 18.0% In November



Core machine orders in Japan jumped a seasonally adjusted 18.0 percent on month, the Cabinet Office said on Thursday - coming in at 942.7 billion yen.

That blew past expectations for an increase of 2.9 percent following the 6.0 percent slide in October.

On a yearly basis, core machine orders climbed 5.3 percent - again exceeding expectations for a decline of 5.3 percent following the 6.1 percent fall in the previous month.

Manufacturing orders rose 0.6 percent on month and lost 12.8 percent on year, while non-manufacturing orders surged 27.8 percent on month and 22.5 percent on year. Government orders dropped 8.7 percent on month and gained 0.2 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 17 2020, 01:53 AM
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New Zealand Manufacturing PMI Slips Into Contraction



The manufacturing sector in New Zealand fell into contraction ion December, the latest survey from BuzinessNZ showed on Friday with a PMI score of 49.3.

That's down from the downwardly revised 51.2 reading in November (originally 51.4) and it slips beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

This was a second consecutive decrease in activity, and the lowest result since September.

Among the individual components, production and employment continued to contract, while new orders and deliveries remained in expansion but at a slower pace. Only finished stocks picked up steam.

"The December result was disappointing," BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said. "After a couple of months flirting with positivity, the PMI dipped back just below the breakeven line again."

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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 17 2020, 02:25 AM
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New Zealand Manufacturing PMI Slips Into Contraction



The manufacturing sector in New Zealand fell into contraction ion December, the latest survey from BuzinessNZ showed on Friday with a PMI score of 49.3.

That's down from the downwardly revised 51.2 reading in November (originally 51.4) and it slips beneath the boom-or-bust line of 50 that separates expansion from contraction.

This was a second consecutive decrease in activity, and the lowest result since September.

Among the individual components, production and employment continued to contract, while new orders and deliveries remained in expansion but at a slower pace. Only finished stocks picked up steam.

"The December result was disappointing," BNZ Senior Economist, Craig Ebert said. "After a couple of months flirting with positivity, the PMI dipped back just below the breakeven line again."

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IFX Gertrude
post Jan 20 2020, 02:03 AM
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Japan Rate Decision On Tap For Monday



The Bank of Japan will on Monday wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

The BoJ is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at -0.1 percent, although it may introduce other means of stimulus.

Japan also will see final November numbers for industrial production; the previous reading suggested a decline of 0.9 percent on month and 8.1 percent on year, while capacity utilization also fell 4.5 percent on month.

China will announce January numbers for loan prime rates. The one-year loan prime rate is called at 4.1 percent, down from 4.2 percent in December. The five-year loan prime rate is expected to be unchanged at 4.8 percent.

The central bank in Indonesia will conclude its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates. The bank is expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 5.00 percent.

Hong Kong will see December data for unemployment; in November, the jobless rate was 3.2 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
post Yesterday, 03:02 AM
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Gold: entering new frontiers postponed, but not canceled



According to Credit Suisse experts, gold has good prospects for growth in 2020.

"Despite the positive sentiment among investors amid rising stock markets, there is still uncertainty over the trade conflict between the US and China. Brexit also brings confusion. The global economy is on the verge. The situation may change in a negative direction at any moment," they said.

Berenberg Bank has adjusted its forecast for the gold exchange rate for 2020 in the direction of its increase.

According to the bank's calculations, the average cost of precious metals this year will be $1,525 per ounce, which is slightly lower than the current level - $ 1,560, but almost 3% higher than the previous forecast of the financial institute ($1,482 per ounce).

Analysts at Berenberg Bank point to the volatile geopolitical situation in the world, which is the main driver of the growth of the gold exchange rate. This includes trade negotiations between the United States and China, Britain's secession from the European Union, as well as tensions between Washington and Tehran.

The bank believes that rising inflation in the United States could create conditions for a further reduction in interest rates by the Federal Reserve, and this, in turn, will support gold.

"Ultimately, inflation in the United States will begin to grow amid an increase in the state budget deficit and the country's trade balance, which can happen very quickly or in ten years. But in any case, it is only a matter of time. If you look at the geopolitical struggle, how many companies want to accumulate dollars? Gold in this case becomes a favorite," Saxo Bank said.

TD Securities experts believe that the price of gold will no longer fall below $1,550 per ounce, even if the military-political conflict between the US and Iran weakens, and investors are again interested in risky assets.

"We expect that in the near future precious metals will be traded in a narrow range. The mark of $1,600 per ounce is also becoming real, as the fundamental drivers remain valid. They will push the cost of precious metals up. The closer the US presidential election, the more expensive gold will become," they said.

According to bank estimates, by the end of this year, an ounce of precious metal will cost $1,650.

The hedge fund Bridgewater Associates predicts that gold will be able to gain a foothold above the level of $1,540 per ounce, and in case of escalation of political conflicts, the cost of precious metal may even exceed $2,000 per ounce.

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IFX Gertrude
post Today, 02:48 AM
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South Korea GDP Accelerates 1.2% In Q4



South Korea's gross domestic product climbed a seasonally adjusted 1.2 percent on quarter in the fourth quarter of 2019, the Bank of Korea said in Wednesday's preliminary reading.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 1.0 percent and accelerated from the 0.4 percent gain in the three months prior.

Real gross domestic income (GDI) increased by 0.5 percent compared to the previous quarter.

On the expenditure side, private consumption was up by 0.7 percent, as expenditures on durable goods (e.g. motor vehicles) and services (e.g. food, recreation and culture) increased.

Government consumption rose by 2.6 percent, with increased expenditures on goods and health care benefits.

Construction investment expanded by 6.3 percent, as building construction and civil engineering increased.

Facilities investment grew by 1.5 percent, led by the growth of investment in machinery (e.g. semiconductor manufacturing equipment).

Exports fell by 0.1 percent, due to a decrease in transportation service despite an increase in machinery. Imports remained the same compared to the previous quarter, owing to decreased expenditure of resident households abroad despite increased imports of motor vehicles.

On the production side, agriculture, forestry and fishing increased by 2.2 percent, mainly due to increased crop yields and fishery production. Manufacturing rose by 1.6 percent, mainly due to an increase in machinery and equipment.

Electricity, gas and water supply rose by 3.9 percent, due to an increase in electricity.

Construction expanded by 4.9 percent, owing to increases in building construction and civil engineering.

Services grew by 0.7 percent, led by wholesale & retail trade, accommodation and food services, and human health and social work.

On a yearly basis, GDP advanced 2.2 percent in Q4, exceeding expectations for 2.0 percent - which would have been unchanged from the previous three months.

For all of 2019, South Korea's GDP was up 2.0 percent on year.

On the expenditure side, while the growth of government consumption expanded, construction and facilities investment contracted as private consumption expenditure and export growth slowed.

On the production side, the growth of manufacturing and services slowed down and construction continued to decline. Real GDI fell by 0.4 percent. As the terms of trade worsened due to factors such as a decrease in semiconductor prices, real GDI fell short of real GDP.

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