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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 4 2019, 05:42 AM
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Australia Retail Sales Data On Tap For Monday



Australia will on Monday release September figures for retail sales, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Retail sales are expected to rise 0.4 percent on month, unchanged from the August ready. For the third quarter of 2019, sales are called higher by 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent in Q2.

Australia also will see October data for the job ads monitor from ANZ and the inflation forecast from TD Securities. In September, job ads were up 0.3 percent on month, while inflation was predicted to be higher by 0.1 percent on month and 1.5 percent on year.

Malaysia will provide September figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In August, imports were worth 70.43 billion ringgit and exports were at 81.36 billion ringgit for a trade surplus of 10.92 billion ringgit.

Thailand will release October figure for consumer and producer prices. In September, overall inflation was up 0.1 percent on month and 0.3 percent on year, while core CPI rose 0.1 percent on month and 0.4 percent on year. Producer prices were flat on month and down 1.9 percent on year.

Finally, the markets in Japan are closed on Monday for Culture Day and will re-open on Tuesday.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 5 2019, 04:52 AM
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Dollar resists pressure, EUR/USD tends to rise



The current week has begun quite calmly for the main world currency. The ISM report on the US manufacturing sector only caused a slight drawback. However, experts are confident in the stability of the US currency and the strengthening of its position. The ISM report, demonstrating the state of the manufacturing sector of the US economy, presented a real picture of what was happening, which did not please the experts too much. Although the ISM index was higher than the September 2019 indicator, it did not reach the expectations of analysts, remaining close to a ten-year low. According to statistics, US production, like imports, fell to 2009 lows. According to experts, these indicators indicate a high probability of further easing of the Federal Reserve policy. Many experts expected a stronger market reaction to the publication of a key US employment report. According to data presented last Friday, job growth slowed down a bit, but remained at an acceptable level (128 thousand instead of the forecasted 85–90 thousand), while the unemployment rate rose from 3.5% to 3.6%. Analysts also recorded an increase in average hourly wages of 0.2% instead of the expected 0.3%. Current data has confirmed a slowdown in the US economy, which is under severe pressure from prolonged trade wars. An additional confirmation of this fact was the fall in business activity in the manufacturing sector (ISM index) below the critical level of 50. The US dollar did not avoid the negative impact. In the chain of "American economy - US currency", it is a key link that accounts for the main blows. The greenback is actively opposing them, but remains under pressure, which intensifies with optimism in the markets. Note that trade disputes have always spurred the growth of the greenback, so the weakening of trade tension will contribute to the demand for other assets to the detriment of the US dollar. The U.S. administration is currently seeking to soften rhetoric, declaring optimism regarding negotiations between America and China. The White House is talking about a possible cancellation of tariffs for European cars. In such a situation, the EUR/USD pair may begin to sag. On the morning of Monday, November 4, it already showed a similar trend, trading near 1.1151–1.1152 marks.



The downward trend caused concern among market participants, as a day earlier the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.1169–1.1170, the highs of August 2019.



According to analysts, the pair is one step away from the key level of 1.1200. Overcoming this milestone, as in the case of the dollar index (DXY), is assessed by the market as a prerequisite for further growth. If this level is overcome, the EUR/USD pair will occupy high positions and maintain them until the end of 2019, experts said. The implementation of such a scenario will raise the pair almost to an unattainable height - up to 1.1400 and above. On Monday, before starting to rise, the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.1157–1.1158. Now the pair has slightly increased to 1,1159–1,1160.



Experts rate high chances that the pair will continue the rally. To implement this scenario, a relatively calm external background is needed, that is, the absence of a hard Brexit, an escalation of the conflict between the US and the EU, as well as the stabilization of Washington-Beijing relations. In this case, the EUR/USD pair, having overcome the key barrier of 1,1200, may begin to move to 1.1260–1.1270. For this, the "bulls" will need to break through the resistance at the levels of 1.1175–1.1190. As for the current sentiment, analysts are confident that market players will seek to close long positions in the dollar. Long-term observations show that the US currency can withstand even the most unfavorable factors. Apart from market volatility and an unstable external background, these include mixed economic data on the US economy and the Fed's attempts to weaken the national currency. Nevertheless, the greenback can cope with the situation. Its strength allows it not to sag under the pressure of negative circumstances, experts conclude.



At the time, the EUR / USD pair reached the level of 1.1165–1.1166, trying to exceed what was achieved.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 6 2019, 05:07 AM
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Bank Of Japan Minutes On Tap For Wednesday



The Bank of Japan will on Wednesday release the minutes from its September 19 monetary policy meeting, highlighting a light day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

At the meeting, the Policy Board of the BoJ voted 7-2 to maintain interest rate at -0.1 percent on current accounts that financial institutions maintain at the bank. The bank said it will purchase government bonds so that the yield of 10-year JGBs will remain at around zero percent.

Japan also will see final October numbers for the services and composite PMIs from Jibun Bank; the previous scores were 50.3 and 49.8, respectively.

The central bank in Thailand will wrap up its monetary policy meeting and then announce its decision on interest rates; the bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark lending rate steady at 1.50 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 7 2019, 03:32 AM
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Australia Has A$7.180 Billion Trade Surplus In September



Australia had a seasonally adjusted merchandise trade surplus of A$7.180 billion in September, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday.

That handily exceeded forecasts for a surplus of A$5.050 billion following the upwardly revised A$6.617 billion surplus in the previous month (originally A$5.926 billion).

Exports were up A$1.452 billion or 3.0 percent on month to A$43.215 billion, while imports gained A$889 million or 3.0 percent on month to A$36.034 billion.

Net exports of goods under merchanting remained roughly steady at A$15 million.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 8 2019, 02:41 AM
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Japan Household Spending Jumps 9.5% On Year In September



The average of household spending in Japan was up 9.5 percent on year in real terms in September, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday - coming in at 300,609 yen.

That beat forecasts for an increase of 7.0 percent following the 1.0 percent gain in August.

The average of monthly income per household stood at 457,427 yen, down an annual 0.4 percent.

Individually, spending was up for food, housing, fuel, furniture, clothing, medical care, transportation and recreation.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 11 2019, 05:17 AM
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Japan Core Machinery Orders Fall Unexpectedly



Japan core machinery orders declined unexpectedly in September, data from the Cabinet Office showed Monday.

Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of private capital investment, declined 2.9 percent month-on-month, following a 2.4 percent drop in August.

This was the third consecutive fall in orders. Orders were forecast to expand 0.9 percent.

By sector, orders in manufacturing declined 5.2 percent, while that in non-manufacturing grew 2.6 percent.

In the fourth quarter, core orders are forecast to grow 3.5 percent.

The continued fall in machinery orders suggests that the recent strength in capital goods shipments won't last, Marcel Thieliant, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The economist forecasts a 0.7 percent sequential drop in business investment in the fourth quarter. Investment growth is set to slow to 1.0 percent in 2020 from 1.8 percent this year.

On a yearly basis, core orders rose 5.1 percent, in contrast to August's 14.5 percent decrease and slower than the 8.1 percent increase in August.

The third quarter GDP data is due on November 14. The economy is forecast to grow 0.9 percent after rising 1.3 percent in the second quarter.

Elsewhere, data from Bank of Japan showed that bank lending grew at a steady pace of 2 percent in October.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 12 2019, 04:29 AM
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Dollar Exhibits Weakness Against Rivals



The U.S. dollar exhibited weakness against most major currencies on Monday as traders looked for further developments on the trade front.

After some positive news on the U.S.-China trade front during the earlier part of the previous week, there was a setback of sorts on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump remarked that he had not made a decision on reduction of tariffs on Chinese goods.

Trump said over the weekend that China moved more slowly than he would have liked and that China very much wants to make a deal.

The dollar index declined to a low of 98.13 in early trades but edged up a bit to 98.22 as the session progressed. Still, it was trailing its previous close by about 0.14%.

Against the euro, the dollar shed about 0.12% at 1.1032 a euro.

Germany's wholesale prices declined at the fastest pace in more than three years in October, falling 2.3% year-on-year, after dropping by 1.9% a month earlier.

On a monthly basis, wholesale prices slid 0.1%, but slower than the 0.4% decrease logged in September. This was the fifth consecutive decrease.

Against pound sterling, the dollar weakened to 1.2853, from $1.2775 a unit of sterling on Friday evening.

U.K.'s Gross domestic product grew 0.3% sequentially in the third quarter after contracting 0.2% in the previous three months. However, this was weaker than the consensus of 0.4%. The Bank of England had projected a 0.4% growth for the third quarter.

On a yearly basis, GDP advanced 1%, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 2010.

The Japanese Yen recovered to 109.05 a dollar, after having dropped to 109.29 yen a dollar earlier in the day.

The yen's earlier weakness was due to the Cabinet Office's data showing Japanese core machinery orders declining unexpectedly in September.

Core machinery orders, a leading indicator of private capital investment, declined 2.9% month-on-month, following a 2.4% drop in August. This was the third consecutive fall in orders. Orders were forecast to expand 0.9%.

The dollar was up against the Aussie with the Aussie-Dollar pair at 0.6851.

Against the loonie, the dollar was down slightly at 1.3226. Against Swiss franc, the dollar weakened to 0.9934, giving up about 0.4% from previous close.

Traders were reluctant to make significant moves as they looked ahead to President Donald Trump's speech at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday as well as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 13 2019, 01:33 AM
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Dollar Edges Up Against Most Major Currencies



The U.S. dollar held above the flat line right through the session on Tuesday. The focus was on President Donald Trump's speech at The Economic Club of New York.

The dollar index opened flat at 98.21 and edged higher gradually to 98.42 a little before noon, and spent the rest of the day moving around 98.30. Trump's speech provided no significant details on the state of trade talks between the U.S. and China. The President spent the bulk of his remarks touting the strength of the U.S. economy, crediting his policies cutting taxes and regulation for the strong growth seen in recent years.

Trump attacked the Federal Reserve and claimed the economy and the markets would be even stronger if the central bank would take his advice and slash interest rates further.

"But we all make mistakes, don't we?" Trump said in an apparent reference to his decision to nominate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Trump also briefly discussed the trade talks with China, claiming the Chinese are "dying to make a deal" and an agreement is "close."

The president said a significant phase one trade deal with China "could happen soon" but stressed that he would only accept an agreement that is good for U.S. companies and workers.

Trump later denied that his trade war with China is hurting industry or causing uncertainty and threatened further increases in tariffs if a deal is not reached.

Against the euro, the dollar strengthened to 1.1011, gaining 0.22%.

The Pound Sterling was down slightly against the dollar with a unit of sterling fetching $1.2848, compared to Monday's close of $1.2853.

The UK labor market remained weak in the third quarter as employment and vacancies declined notably ahead of general election.

The employment rate fell by 0.1 percentage point to 76% in the third quarter, the Office for National Statistics reported Tuesday. The ILO unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% in the third quarter from 3.9% in the preceding period.

Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was slightly weak at 108.98 yen.

The Aussie shed ground against the dollar. The Aussie-Dollar pair was last seen hovering around 0.6840.

The loonie and Swiss franc were also weak against the greenback, with the respective pairs quoting at 1.3239 and 0.9929, respectively.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 14 2019, 02:15 AM
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Dollar Exhibits Mixed Trend Against Major Currencies



The U.S. dollar turned in a mixed performance against major currencies on Wednesday, although the dollar index spent much of the session in positive territory, aided by positive comments about the state of the economy by the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Testifying before Congress, Powell reiterated that the central bank is likely to leave interest rates on hold in the near future.

Powell told members of the Joint Economic Committee that the Fed would leave rates at their current level unless there is a material change in the economic outlook.

"We see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2 percent objective," Powell said.

"Of course, if developments emerge that cause a material reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly," he added. "Policy is not on a preset course."

The Fed chief noted that noteworthy risks to the outlook remain, citing sluggish growth abroad and uncertainty about trade amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war.

The dollar index was last seen at 98.37, up from previous close of 98.31. The dollar moved in a very narrow band between 98.29 and 98.45.

Against the Euro, the dollar was down slightly at 1.1003, recovering from a low of 1.1022.

The Pound Sterling was up marginally against the dollar, at $1.2847, after moving between $1.2822 and $1.2863.

Against the Japanese Yen, the dollar was down at 108.84 yen, compared to 108.84 yen on Tuesday.

The dollar was up against the aussie with the AUD-USD pair at 0.6837.

Against the loonie, the dollar was gaining at 1.3254, and against Swiss franc it was down notably at 0.9903.

According to the data released by the Labor Department, U.S. consumer prices rose by slightly more than anticipated in the month of October.

The Labor Department said its consumer price index climbed by 0.4% in October after coming in unchanged in September. Economists had expected consumer prices to rise by 0.3%.

Excluding food and energy prices, core consumer prices edged up by 0.2% in October after a 0.1% uptick in September. The uptick in core prices matched economist estimates.

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IFX Yvonne
post Nov 15 2019, 07:23 AM
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Japan Industrial Production Rises In September




Japan's industrial production grew more than initially estimated in September, final data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed on Friday.

Industrial production rose 1.7 percent month-on-month in September. According to the initial estimate, production had increased 1.4 percent.

On a monthly basis, shipments gained 1.5 percent in September instead of 1.3 percent initially estimated.

Meanwhile, inventory dropped 1.4 percent compared to the initial estimate of 1.6 percent decrease and the inventory ratio fell 1.9 percent versus prior estimate of 2.4 percent drop.

On a year-on-year basis, industrial production grew 1.3 percent in September. The initial estimate showed an annual growth of 1.1 percent.

Further, data showed that capacity utilization rose 1.0 percent on month and rose 0.2 percent from a year ago.



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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 18 2019, 02:10 AM
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Japan Housing Loan Data Due On Monday



Japan is on Monday scheduled to release Q3 numbers for housing loans, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity. In the three months prior, housing loans were up 2.2 percent on year.

Japan also will see October figures for condominium sales; in September, sales plummeted 30.0 percent on year.

Indonesia will release October figures for imports, exports and trade balance. In September, imports were worth $14.26 billion and exports were at $14.10 billion for a trade deficit of $160.5 million.

Singapore will provide October trade data; in September, imports were worth SGD39.48 billion and exports were at SGD43.51 billion for a trade surplus of SGD4.03 billion.

Thailand will release Q3 numbers for gross domestic product; in the three months prior, GDP was up 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.3 percent on year.

Hong Kong sill see October figures for unemployment; in September, the jobless rate was 2.9 percent.

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IFX Gertrude
post Nov 19 2019, 03:02 AM
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New Zealand Producer Price Outputs +1.0% On Quarter



Producer price outputs in New Zealand were up 1.0 percent on quarter and 1.8 percent on year in the third quarter of 2019, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday.

Input prices rose 0.9 percent on quarter and 2.1 percent on year, while capital goods prices advanced 0.8 percent on quarter and 2.7 percent on year.

Prices paid by farmers gained 0.9 percent on quarter and 2.2 percent on year, while salaries and wages rose 0.8 percent on quarter and 2.4 percent on year.

Prices paid by consumers were up 0.7 percent on quarter and 1.5 percent on year.

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IFX Gertrude
post Yesterday, 01:38 AM
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Japan Trade Data On Tap For Wednesday



Japan will on Wednesday release October figures for imports, exports and trade balance, highlighting a modest day for Asia-Pacific economic activity.

Imports are expected to plummet 15.4 percent on year after dipping 1.5 percent in September. Exports are called lower by an annual 7.5 percent after falling 5.2 percent in the previous month. The trade balance is tipped to show a surplus of 301.0 billion yen following the 123.0 billion yen shortfall a month earlier.

Australia will see October results for skilled vacancies and for the leading economic index from Westpac. In September, vacancies fell 0.7 percent on month and the economic index eased 0.08 percent on month.

China will release prime rate numbers for its one-year and five-year loans. The one-year is called steady at 4.2 percent, while the five-year is expected to rise to 4.9 percent from 4.85 percent previously.

Malaysia will provide October numbers for producer prices; in September, inflation was flat on month and up 1.1 percent on year.

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