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Throughout the month of October, the dollar grew against the Euro. In the three weeks of this month, the dollar gained more than 330 pips. For most of the month, economic data for the United States was upbeat. By all accounts, the US economy looks set to continue to outperform that of Germany and the Eurozone as a whole.
In the last two days of the 42nd week (October 17-18), the trend seems to have broken and the dollar's rally has ended. Monday is actually the day where it will be possible to confirm that the downward trend has ended.
On Monday October 21, there are no important data for the economy of the United States, but we have data with an average weight for the markets from Germany, namely the Producer Price Index, where data for the month of September is expected to be -0.2%. And since we expect negative inflation compared to the previous month, it is a more likely scenario in which investors will continue to bet on the dollar.
Later this week we will learn a lot of important data about the Eurozone, as well as key statements from the ECB.
Thus, for Monday, October 21, we expect a light test of the EURUSD levels of 1.0890, but it will probably not be broken and a neutral trend will be established for the day with the possibility of a new rise of the dollar to 1.0820. For the last 2.5 months, the EURUSD level of 1.0810 is the lowest and was reached on Thursday, October 17.